Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Bucks’ stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard to both have a 50% chance to play tonight at home versus the Clippers. Given that Milwaukee also lost frequent Giannis fill-in Bobby Portis to a suspension today for taking an unapproved pain medication, the status of the Bucks’ All-Stars are now the most important item on tonight’s NBA slate.
Due to Portis’s absence — in addition to the rotation still adjusting to life without Khris Middleton — Giannis and Lillard both look like strong plays despite a matchup against the low-paced and defensively sound Clippers. Unabated NBA projects Giannis for 29.2 points, 12.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists, while Lillard projects for 23.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 7.9 assists. With a 112.5-point implied total for Milwaukee that has them as only a three-point home underdog, there is still a decent chance at least one of these guys play and become a compelling tournament option.
If Giannis is out, it wouldn’t be unexpected, as he was out before the All-Star break and then through it. Lillard would be expected to consolidate usage and become a much more compelling play in every format tonight. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections project Lillard for 27.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 8.6 assists, if Antetokounmpo sits, making him potentially one of the higher-owned pieces in DraftKings tournaments. Unabated’s bet simulation tools would also project 15.9% Expected Value on Damian Lillard’s over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If Lillard were to miss today’s game while Giannis plays, the situation would unquestionably benefit Giannis. Unabated NBA would project Giannis for 31.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists. Additionally, Giannis would have 9.7% Expected Value on his current over 48.5 PRAs line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If both players miss today, things start to look silly for the remaining Bucks. Here’s how they’d project according to Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections:
- Kyle Kuzma projects for 25.0 points, 7.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists
- Brook Lopez projects for 16.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists
- Gary Trent projects for 12.5 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists
- Taurean Prince projects for 11.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists
Kuzma has put up a 31.6% usage rate on the Bucks in about 57 possessions this year without Lillard, Giannis and Portis, along with a 33% assist rate. Even if he doesn’t maintain the 1.3 DraftKings Points Per Minute he’s created in that small sample size, Kuzma would likely become incredibly highly owned in DraftKings tournaments tonight as one of the only viable shot creators left on the team. Everyone else active for the Bucks would also look viable in a shortened rotation. This is the most important injury situation to watch out for on tonight’s NBA slate.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
