The NBA All-Star break has been completed and the action is set to return to its normal format on the hardwood. A full slate will take place tomorrow with just one game tipping off tonight, as the Los Angeles Lakers host the Charlotte Hornets.
There will be an added layer to this matchup following the trade deadline. These two sides initially agreed to a trade centered around Mark Williams and Dalton Knecht. However, following some concerning results of the physicals, the trade was rescinded and left both teams to deal with the damage done.
Tonight will also mark just the third game of Luka Doncic’s Lakers career, with him expected to be removed from any minutes restrictions moving forward. The Lakers will be looking to get him fully settled into the team at an accelerated rate with just 30 games remaining in their regular season.
The Lakers enter tonight’s matchup as 12-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hornets hold +500 odds on the moneyline and the game total is set at 228.
Here are my three favorite prop bets for the Lakers vs. Hornets matchup.
Mark Williams Over 24.5 Points & Rebounds (-110)
Few motivations can drive a player as much as the opportunity for revenge. Mark Williams will have the chance to prove why the Lakers will regret the trade not going through less than two weeks after the deal was initially agreed upon.
Beyond this, it is an excellent matchup for Mark Williams. Production at the big man position is a clear weakness for the Lakers even after the addition of Alex Len. Sending away Anthony Davis has changed the completion of their team in a major way with interior defense no longer being an area of strength.
Williams is having a career year averaging 15.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game or 25.2 combined points and rebounds. He has recorded over 24.5 PR in seven of his past nine games. Williams has a massive 9-foot-9 standing reach and the ability to rise up around the rim. Expect the Lakers to have no answer for him as a lob threat and for LaMelo Ball to seek these opportunities often. His monstrous frame will also pave the opportunity for simple put-backs on the offensive glass. While he was held to 11 points and eight rebounds in the first matchup against the Lakers, expect the interior defense to be much different without Anthony Davis.
With a favorable matchup and motivation on his side, expect Mark Williams to be active from start to finish in this game. The trade report and issue with his physical have overshadowed what has truly been a breakout season for the Duke product. Count on him getting back on track and for an impressive statistical output tonight in the first action back from the All-Star break.
LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+105)
Despite his season-long averages of 27.3 points, 7.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds, LaMelo Ball was not named an All-Star this year. While the 13-39 record of the Hornets is a fair pushback, Ball has taken his game to new heights this season.
One area where this is especially clear is from beyond the three-point arc. The former Rookie of the Year is attempting 11.9 three-point attempts per game. While he does not officially qualify for the league leaders due to him only having played 33 games thus far, this would rank first in the NBA. Ball is connecting on 33.8% of these perimeter attempts, which comes out to an average of 4.0 made three-pointers per game. He has connected with over 3.5 made three-pointers in 21 of his 33 starts. He left the previous matchup against the Lakers after just 8.7 minutes of game time, but still shot 2-for-3 from beyond the three-point arc in this short spurt.
While the outlook for the Lakers’ defense drastically changes following the loss of Anthony Davis, they currently rank 14th in opponent three-point attempts allowed. Ball is willing to let it fly from wherever and will look to assert himself from the perimeter tonight. With the bright lights of Los Angeles on him and the willingness from the perimeter clear, count on Ball connecting with over 3.5 three-pointers for the 22nd time this season.
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124)
With two games under his belt after returning from his calf injury, and an All-Star break to make sure he is healthy, expect the true version of Luka Doncic to arrive in Los Angeles tonight. The five-time All-NBA guard has played 47 total minutes with the Lakers thus far and produced 30 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. He has shot a combined 4-for-15 from beyond the three-point arc in these two games.
Looking at the larger sample size on the season, Doncic is attempting 9.5 three-point attempts per game. He is connecting on 34.8% of these, which comes out to an average of 3.3 made three-pointers per game. Doncic has made four or more three-pointers in 10 of the 24 games he has played. Just last season he averaged 4.1 made three-pointers per game and connected on at least four three-pointers in 41 of 70 games.
There are plenty of reasons for concern with this Hornets team, but defense is at the top of the list. They enter tonight’s matchup ranked 24th in opponent three-point attempts allowed. Los Angeles will be prioritizing getting Doncic fully involved in the offense and expect a focused effort on this tonight with no clear matchup for Doncic on the Hornets’ roster. Expect more freedom for the star guard compared to what was seen in the first two games and for him to shoot closer to his typical standard.
