The PGA TOUR seasons continues this week with the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta (par 71, 7,436 yards, paspalum greens), which has been the home of this tournament since it’s inception in 2022. There are 132 golfers competing at the Mexico Open this week and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
Below, I have featured a make/miss cut parlay to consider for tournament.
Aaron Rai and Harry Hall to make the cut + Mac Meissner to miss the cut (+374)
Rai has been one of the best cut makers in the world over the last year, advancing to the weekend in 19 of his past 21 starts. At No.29 in the world, Rai is the highest ranked player competing this week. Over his last 50 rounds, the Englishman ranks fourth in SGT2G, sixth in SG APP and 23rd in SG OTT. Rai has finished inside the top-25 in two of his three starts at Vidanta Vallarta and is one of the safest picks to make the cut this week.
Hall is coming off a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open, but he only missed the weekend by one stroke at TPC Scottsdale and this is only his second missed cut in his last 15 starts, which is a run that includes nine top-25 finishes. Plus, when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, Hall ranks first in BOB% and first in par three efficiency. Being a strong par three player is crucial at Vidanta Vallarta, which is a rare par 71 that features five par threes. At this track, each of the last two winners have finished the event top-three in par three efficiency. Hall has finished T33rd and T11th in his two starts at Vidanta Vallarta, and he should bounce back with quality finish this week after his rare early exit at the WM Phoenix Open.
For the last leg of this parlay and the piece that really juices this parlay’s odds is Meissner to miss the cut. In his debut at Vidanta Vallarta last season, Meissner nearly finished in last place and missed the cut by six shots. The 26-year-old shot over par in both of his rounds and he lost 4.1 strokes on the paspalum greens of this par 71, which is the second-worst putting output of his career. Meissner has only made one cut in three career starts at courses with paspalum putting surfaces, and his current form isn’t encouraging. In his last three starts, Meissner has finished T68th, T52nd and MC. Meissner lost 3.0 strokes on approach during that latter start. He has lost strokes with his driver at four events in a row. All signs are pointing to Meissner struggling this week, and he is a sharp bet to be sent home early from the Mexico Open.
