This week’s PGA TOUR event takes us out to Vidanta in Mexico, a Greg Norman-designed course situated just outside Puerto Vallarta.
The event has a full field of over 140 players but only three of the world’s top 40 players from the OWGR are playing. That makes for a supremely wide-open affair. I wrote a little about the course in play, in this week’s Golf Cheat Sheet for the Mexico Open, up on DraftKings Network.
“As a note, around the green play tends to be the least important factor of all the main skill categories at Vidanta, and good weather for 2025 means we’ll likely see very high GIR percentages once again—and less emphasis on ATG skill. The Paspalum greens this week, a common grass in tropical climates, also tend to play slower and are more receptive to approaches. The slower greens also tend to help out poor putters and in the last two seasons, we have seen players who typically struggle with putting on traditional PGA setups spike with that club.
Looking to big hitters this week and players trending well off the tee is a good way to start research. In 2022, all but one of the top-10 finishers at this event gained 1.5 strokes or more off the tee for the week and wider fairways means accuracy isn’t super important.”
The wind looks minimal for Round 1 and with softer greens in play we could see some low scores on this Par 71 which yielded a round of 63 (Erik van Rooyen) in Round 1 last season.
Below I’ll give you my best ideas for Thursday’s DraftKings Pick6 lineups…
Stephan Jaeger Less Than 68.5 Strokes
Jaeger is a player I could see making a lot of noise this week, and even if he’s not your pick to win, you have to respect what he’s done in Mexico the past few appearances. His last three visits to Vidanta have all resulted in top-20 finishes and last year he ended the week in T3 after posting two 68s and a final-round 65. Overall, six of Jaeger’s previous eight rounds at Vidanta have been 68 or better.
He’s coming in off a tough Genesis which saw him lose 6.9 strokes putting but his long game remained in solid form. I think it’s likely that we will see a bounceback of sorts from him after that terrible putting weekend and given the course history I’m bullish enough to have him going for less than the 68.5 total up on DraftKings on Thursday.
Alex Smalley More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Smalley has played some solid golf to start the season. The American has finished T21 or better in three of his last four starts and gained strokes on approach in all four of his 2025 PGA events. While he perhaps doesn’t have the prestigious long game of last season’s winner Jake Knapp, Smalley is great at converting his birdie chances when he gets them and ranks 9th in birdies gained and 3rd in eagles gained, over the last 24 rounds.
While he’s missed the cut at Vidanta each of the last two seasons, he finished T6 at this event back in 2022, gaining 10.1 strokes ball-striking for the week. Given the form and confidence he’s shown of late, I don’t see any reason why to doubt the current stats, which say he’s producing birdies at a high rate, and should continue to do so on this somewhat straightforward setup.
Kevin Yu More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
A lot of what I wrote about Smalley can be applied to Yu. His long game is in fine form right now as he comes into this week’s event off the back of two straight top-20 finishes where he gained strokes big off the tee and on approach. A winner in the fall at the Sanderson Farms, Yu’s playing with confidence and should benefit from the setup where big hitters and tee-to-green maestros have prospered over the last few seasons.
From a Pick6 perspective, I think taking the more than on Yu’s birdie or better total makes sense. He is playing this event for the first time but is 24th in opportunities gained and 13th in birdies made over the last 24 rounds. With a simple setup and great weather, being bullish on Yu and Smalley feels like a great way to go about building cards for Round 1.
Thriston Lawrence Less Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
One player I’m not super bullish on this week is South African Thriston Lawrence. Lawrence is an up-and-down player who won over the fall and finished T4 at the Open last season. However, his downswings can be quite bad and he’s currently mired in a bit of a rut that has seen him now miss two cuts in a row on the PGA, including an effort in Phoenix two weeks ago where he lost 5.2 strokes on approach and another 2.0 strokes off the tee.
Lawrence will likely just be looking to get things on track this week so asking him to be aggressive and confident enough to bag five or more birdies or better in Round 1 is not a place I’d necessarily want to be. Given he’s placed at the same totals as players like Yu and Smalley on the DraftKings Pick6 site (players who have much better form than him) fading him in Round 1 seems entirely appropriate.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
