Wednesday provides a terrific slate of college hoops games across the nation, which I’ve boiled down to five college basketball picks for the evening. I posted the plays to Twitter on Tuesday evening, and am using those numbers below. Beware some of the odds have shifted a bit overnight — but I’ll address how to play any new numbers.
Let’s breakdown Wednesday’s college basketball picks below.
Providence at Georgetown (7:00pm ET)
Ed Cooley is 0-4 against his former team since leaving Providence for Georgetown, losing each matchup by at least eight points, including a loss in the Big East Tournament last March. That has to be eating at him, and I think he gets in the win column of Wednesday at home. Last season, the Friars were supposed to win all those matchups. They had a much better team, and Cooley was still building the Hoyas up.
While the rebuild still has a ways to go, this Georgetown team is better, and we saw that on January 25th in Rhode Island. The Hoyas got off to a great start, but playing on one of the toughest home courts in the country, the Friars were able to pull away. Providence continues to have horrible luck with injuries, and remain thin for this one. PC snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with a win at home over Villanova, but things will get much more difficult on the road here, where the Friars are just 2-6.
The Hoyas are 12-4 at home, and I expect them to be locked in for this one. Cooley and company were favored by a point when playing at Providence less than a month ago, so with more injuries to the Friars, the spread on this game doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Nonetheless, the line moved against Georgetown on Wednesday morning, so go grab yourself a better number.
UPDATE: Thomas Sorber (14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) has been ruled OUT for Georgetown, which caused the line move. If you have bet the game, I’ll be watching live and will post if I am buying off at all (if it looks like the right move). If you’re yet to bet the game, I’d watch and see if there’s a spot you want to wager in-game. I still love the situation for Georgetown, but Sorber is a defensive anchor that is very valuable.
College Basketball Pick: Georgetown -3.5 (-105) 2-units
Bradley at Illinois State (8:00pm ET)
Bradley is off its win of the season, taking down Drake on the road on Sunday afternoon. The Braves are having a terrific season, but this would be the ultimate sell-high on spot them thus far. On the other side of the matchup, we get a buy-low spot on Illinois State, which has dropped three games in a row — two as underdogs and one as a short favorite. The Redbirds are desperate for a victory here, and I expect them to prevail with one. They went on the road to Bradley just a few weeks ago and took the Braves down to the wire as 8.5-point dogs. Good situation here to get revenge in a must-win game.
College Basketball Pick: Illinois State ML (+102) 1-unit
Arkansas at Auburn (9:00pm ET)
Auburn played like the No. 1 team in the country on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, essentially taking home a wire-to-wire road win over No. 2 Alabama. Maybe we’ll catch the Tigers letting their guard down at home in a game they may look right past as such a big favorite. While John Calipari isn’t having the debut season he hoped for at Arkansas, his team is playing much better basketball of late.
It started with the Saturday night showdown in Lexington, when Cal returned to Rupp Arena as nearly a double-digit underdog. The Hogs tookdown Kentucky outright, and are 4-0-1 ATS in the month of February. Two of those covers are outright wins as road dogs — Kentucky mentioned previously, and as 6.5-point dogs at Texas. Arkansas took ‘Bama to the wire, losing by four at home, and also played Texas A&M close on the road over the weekend, but wound up pushing. We’re getting a ton of points here, to the point the Hogs can cover this one without even being completely competitive. Too much to pass up.
College Basketball Pick: Arkansas +16.5 (-110) 1-unit
Alabama at Missouri (9:00pm ET)
I whiffed big time backing ‘Bama on Saturday to takedown No. 1 overall, but I’m back on them in a tough road game here. This isn’t a Missouri fade at all, as the Tigers have been a tremendous story this season. Missouri is a ridiculous 16-1 at home this season and 16-1 when favored. But the one home loss/favored loss was 11 days ago to Texas A&M — the toughest opponent to come into Mizzou Arena … until tonight.
Enter a pissed off Crimson Tide squad looking to bounce-back from a loss, with all kinds of numbers working in their favor. ‘Bama in 8-1 on the road this season, ripping off eight in a row away from home. The Tide have thrived in the underdog role, going 3-0 outright this season when the odds are against them. And to tie it together, Nate Oats has gotten his squad’s best effort coming off a loss. Following the previous three losses this season, Alabama is 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game, winning by 11 points per game and covering by 9.3 points per game. None of them have been easy games, and in fact, the two previous times have seen the Tide priced as a road dog. Here we are again, and I’m backing the Tide to rally and bounce-back.
College Basketball Pick: Alabama ML (-105) 1.5-units
New Mexico at Boise State (10:00pm ET)
New Mexico comes in riding an eight-game winning streak, which started a month ago with a 19-point home win over Boise State. Best believe the Broncos remember this, and will be out for revenge in their own building. Both of these squads have tremendous home courts in the Mountain West, and New Mexico just rallied on Sunday at The Pit to erase a double-digit deficit and get a massive victory over Utah State.
I could see this being a letdown spot of the road, with Boise State being hyped up to takedown the top team in the conference. The Broncos are 11-1 at home this season, including an 8-3 ATS mark, with an average margin of victory over 23 points per game, and a cover margin of +8.1 PPG. Boise got blown out on Saturday night on the road at San Diego State, creating plenty of urgency for this one. The number has grown here, but I’m comfortable with the Broncos winning with margin in a statement game.
College Basketball Pick: Boise State -2.5 (-110) 1.5-units
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