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College Basketball Best Bets: Picks for #4 Alabama vs. #15 Missouri on February 19

College Basketball Best Bets: Picks for #4 Alabama vs. #15 Missouri on February 19

Sports Betting Picks College Basketball DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Bryan Armetta

It’s no secret that the SEC is a gauntlet, with nine different programs ranked in this week’s AP Poll. #4 Alabama’s ranking certainly isn’t a shock, having made the Final Four last year. #15 Missouri has been a pleasant surprise after the program went winless in conference play last season. The Tigers enter tonight’s matchup as 1.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 171.5 points. Below is my favorite college basketball pick for tonight’s showdown on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Alabama at Missouri (9:00 PM ET)

Unlike last weekend’s battle with Auburn, the Crimson Tide will face a team that plays a similar brand of basketball on Wednesday. Alabama averages 90.3 points per game, best in the nation, while Missouri has put up 82.6 points (20th). The former also plays at the fastest tempo in America (74.5), per KenPom. That should lead to plenty of extra possessions for both squads.

While both rosters possess plenty of star power, they also rely on depth to win games. ‘Bama is led by guard Mark Sears (17.8 PPG), forward Grant Nelson (12.6 PPG), and guard Aden Holloway (11.7 PPG). Mizzou has gotten great production from guard Tamar Bates (13.4 PPG) and forward Mark Mitchell (12.9 PPG) and guard Caleb Grill (12.8 PPG). However, both teams depend on ten-man rotations each night. That should lead to plenty of fresh legs for tonight’s contest.

Neither side turns the ball over often, but every mistake counts in a potential track race. Missouri’s defense has a turnover rate of 20.9%, 28th in college basketball per KenPom, and a steal percentage of 14.4% (fourth). By comparison, Alabama’s defensive turnover rate is currently at 13.4%, 354th in the nation. In an otherwise even matchup on paper, the Tigers have a much higher ability to create chaos.

In all four of Alabama’s losses, the school’s opponents ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Missouri (11th) certainly fits the bill of a team that can take down the Tide. In front of an energetic Columbia crowd, the Tigers could deliver a signature win for head coach Dennis Gates.

College Basketball Pick: Missouri -1.5 (-118) – 1 Unit

Bryan Armetta
Bryan Armetta
Bryan Armetta is a New York-based writer that has spent over eight years in sports media. Working for DraftKings since 2024, he currently serves as a writer, editor and analyst for all things sports and pop culture. Bryan specializes in MLB, NBA, NFL, college sports and entertainment content. Prior to his time at DKN, he worked for MLB Network, NHL Network and SiriusXM Sports.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.