Don’t look now, but the NCAA Tournament is rapidly approaching. College basketball is beginning to step into center stage of the sports world as momentum builds toward the most exciting tournament in all of sports. Less than a month remains until conference tournaments begin and tickets are officially punched to the postseason tournament.
While teams like Duke, Auburn, and Alabama have handled business and are rightfully viewed as locks for the NCAA Tournament, the same fate is not secured for plenty of other teams. Results for the remainder of the season and in conference tournament play will fully decide many teams’ future. This also creates some unique value on DraftKings Sportsbook for some squads to qualify for the tournament. Here are a few notable bubble teams and my lean on if they ultimately make it into the dance at this stage of the season.
Arkansas
A new standard was set at Arkansas the second John Calipari elected to take the head coaching job. They hold a 15-10 overall record but are just 4-8 in conference play which puts them 12th place in the SEC. The depth and high level of talent in the conference make the pathway to winning the conference tournament and securing the automatic bid seem increasingly improbable. This also creates an opportunity for a few impressive victories if they can make some noise in the conference tournament.
Even still, Arkansas has tallied some impressive wins against LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas this year. The Razorbacks still hold the talent level to go head-to-head with the best teams in the country with Johnell Davis, Adou Thiero, and D.J. Wagner headlining the production. While the pathway is difficult, Arkansas holds some high-profile games that could make their resume look quite impressive to close the year. With their talent level on par with some of the top teams in the country and one of the most proven coaches in college basketball, I like Arkansas’ chances of hitting their stride to close the year and making their way into the NCAA Tournament.
You can currently get +120 odds for the Razorbacks to make the NCAA Tournament on DraftKings Sportsbook compared to their -150 odds to miss.
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt holds a 17-8 record on the season and has gone 5-7 in SEC play to this point. They also will battle with the crowded conference for spots in the tournament and currently hold -270 odds of qualifying. With that said, the team is trending in the wrong direction having lost four of their past five games, although three of those losses were to top-10 teams. This next stretch may ultimately decide their tournament fate as their remaining schedule includes 17th-ranked Kentucky, 24th-ranked Ole Miss, seventh-ranked Texas A&M, 15th-ranked Missouri, Arkansas, and Georgia… all before the SEC tournament kicks off. The program is on a seven-year streak of missing the tournament and will need a solid end to the season to snap this. This is considered the ninth-most difficult remaining schedule in the country. Looking at their resume thus far, they have two wins against top-10 teams (Tennessee and Kentucky) and will have a rematch against Kentucky next up. They have not suffered any losses to quad-three or quad-four teams.
With so many difficult games ahead and the margin of error small based on the competitiveness of the conference, I like the +200 odds of Vanderbilt missing the NCAA Tournament on DraftKings Sportsbook. This will be a fateful stretch with each result set to shift the odds notably. Getting +200 odds is great value based on the path in front of them, and they certainly will earn their path if this is proven wrong.
VCU
The outlook for VCU is different compared to the teams mentioned above. They hold a 20-5 record on the season and are 10-2 in conference play, which puts them in second place in the Atlantic 10 Conference. They can control their destiny by winning the conference tournament and securing an automatic bid, which they are currently favored at -160 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to do.
Even if they come up short, there is a strong case to be made that they have earned an opportunity as an outright bid. They are the 33rd best team based on KenPom ranking and 35th in NET Rankings with the 52nd ranked strength of schedule. The Rams will close the season with matchups against Massachusetts, George Mason, Richmond, Davidson, Duquesne, and Dayton. This does not provide the type of opportunity for a needle-moving victory the way some other teams have, but VCU can take care of business and finish the year with an impressive record.
Ultimately, I expect the Rams to secure their spot by winning the conference tournament without relying on the committee. The value isn’t extreme, but it is worth taking the -195 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for them to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
Georgia
Another team buried in the talented SEC with a chance to stack up a few notable wins is Georgia. The Bulldogs hold a record of 16-10 on the year and are just 4-9 in conference play. They are coming off three straight losses, although they were at the hands of Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Missouri, who each rank in the top-25.
The level of competition Georgia is facing is notable, but they simply have not produced enough wins for me to be confident in their tournament outlook. They have a chance to change this with a few statement victories as they will face top-ranked Auburn, second-ranked Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt before the conference tournament kicks off. These results may very well make or break their season, and unfortunately, I lean towards the latter.
Getting +135 odds for Georgia to miss the NCAA Tournament is great value based on the path in front of them. While they are a respectable basketball team, the lack of wins should prove to be too large of a hurdle to clear and they don’t stand much of a chance of making much noise in the SEC Tournament based on their results. This outlook could change in a major way if they produce an impressive upset over one of the top two teams, but I am jumping on the +135 odds for them to be left out of the big dance.
Expect these odds to be volatile as the season hits the home stretch as every result carries some additional weight. Be prepared to jump on the value when you see a number you like.
