Next on the PGA TOUR schedule is the Mexico Open at Vidanta. This tournament was added to the PGA TOUR calendar four years ago and Vidanta Vallarta (par 71, 7,436 yards, paspalum greens) has been the only course to host the Mexico Open. This week’s field features 132 golfers and there will be a top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Aaron Rai Over Ben Griffin (-115)
Rai should have been heavily favored for this matchup and is a stellar bet at this -115 price. The Englishman is the highest-ranked player competing this week at No. 29 in the world, while Griffin ranks 65th. Rai has only missed two of his last 21 cuts with six top-10 finishes during this time frame, including his breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship in August. Plus, Rai has carded a top-25 finish in two of his three starts at Vidanta Vallarta.
Griffin on the other hand has only played Vidanta Vallarta once and missed the cut in that start. Like Rai, Griffin has been a consistent cut maker, advancing to the weekend in nine of his past 10 starts, but Rai’s long-term form is more appealing. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, Rai ranks 15th in total strokes gained and 25th in SG OTT, while Griffin ranks 24th in total strokes gained and 66th in SG OTT. The OTT metric is crucial for this week with Vidanta Vallarta being a long course that favors efficient drivers and Rai’s experience at this venue should help him outperform Griffin this week, possibly by a comfortable margin.
Jake Knapp Over Beau Hossler (+110)
Knapp is the defending champion of the Mexico Open after winning the event by two strokes a year ago. During that victory, the 30-year-old led the field in birdies by four and he carded an 8-under-63 in the second round, which is Knapp’s career-low on the PGA TOUR. The UCLA product now returns to Vidanta Vallarta in encouraging form to defend his title. Knapp has only missed one cut in six starts this season and he has carded three finishes inside the top-35. His best performance of the season came just last week with a T-16 at the Genesis Invitational, which was played at the South Course of Torrey Pines. This famous venue is the longest course on the PGA TOUR this season and Knapp playing great golf at the South Course certainly bodes well for his return to Vidanta Vallarta this week, which is the fourth-longest track on the PGA TOUR.
Knapp’s irons are also in pristine form, with him gaining strokes on approach at four tournaments in a row, while Hossler conversely has lost strokes on approach in three of his past four starts. The veteran started the season strong with back-to-back top-20 finishes, but Hossler has been subpar since, finishing T-69 of the 80-man field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and then T-32 at the WM Phoenix Open in his last two starts. During these outings, Hossler shot even par or worse in half of his rounds. The 29-year-old finished T-10 in his lone start at Vidanta Vallarta two years ago, but this finish obviously doesn’t compare to Knapp’s two-shot win in his first attempt at the course last season. Plain and simple, Knapp should have been favored for this matchup and Knapp is a must-bet to defeat Hossler at this attractive +110 price on DraftKings Sportsbook.
