In the slugfest that is the SEC, every game counts. Ranked opponents will duke it out on Tuesday in Starkville when #7 Texas A&M visits #21 Mississippi State. The Aggies enter this matchup on a hot streak, having won five straight games. The same can’t be said for the Bulldogs, who have lost four of their last seven contests. Still, the home team enters this one as 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 143.5 points. Here’s my favorite college basketball pick for tonight’s showdown on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (7:00 PM ET)
Tonight’s game is a true battle of opposites; each side’s play style differs drastically. Texas A&M has no trouble winning ugly, ranking sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Mississippi State is 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, putting up just over 79 points per game. The Aggies rely on their depth, with ten different players recording at least ten minutes per game. The Bulldogs have a shorter rotation, sticking to a three-man bench on most nights.
This season, Texas A&M has pulled down 41.0 rebounds per game, sixth-most in the nation, and 16.1 offensive boards per game (1st). With those numbers in mind, Mississippi State’s fate tonight will come down to its ability to box out. The Bulldogs have allowed 34.7 rebounds per game to opponents, fifth-most in the SEC. That doesn’t bode well against an Aggies group that thrives on the glass.
A&M’s rebounding is a double-whammy for the Bulldogs. With more time wasting off the clock, a stellar scoring attack will have less possessions on offense. If there’s any weakness for this Aggies defense, it’s from beyond the arc. The team has allowed opponents to take 25.9 three-point attempts per game, 34th-most in college basketball. However, Mississippi State has only connected on 31.5% of its shots from deep (305th).
Given how these two schools have looked in the month of February, it’s difficult to fade Texas A&M. The Aggies have shown they can squeak out a win even on a poor shooting night thanks to quality rebounding and defense. The same can’t be said for Mississippi State, who have dropped home games to elite programs such as #2 Florida, #15 Missouri, and #4 Alabama. There isn’t much to suggest a change in fortune for the Bulldogs on Tuesday.
College Basketball Pick: Texas A&M ML (+120)
