While hitting on a late-round pick feels nice, there’s nothing more important in fantasy baseball than hitting on your first couple of picks. It truly seems like the quickest way to derail your entire season is whiffing in the first or second round on a player that is supposed to be the anchor of your squad.
I don’t want that for you. I’m here to try and help you avoid busts. Avoid the landmines that ruin a summer. With that in mind, let’s break down a few candidates with some serious red flags.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Busts
OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners | NFBC ADP: 13.4
To say Rodriguez is coming off an underwhelming season would be a massive understatement. Not only did the one-time All-Star struggle in 2024 to career-lows in ISO (.136), wOBA (.321) and wRC+ (116), but he did so as a consensus top five pick. The man burned some bridges in fantasy. He left a sour taste in many, many mouths.
Still, despite all that, the upside and skill of Rodriguez is easily apparent. While the surface numbers were down across the board, Rodriguez managed to post an 87th percentile average exit velocity (91.7) and an 84th percentile expected slugging percentage (.463). He’s also dripping with tools. Look no further than his 96th percentile status in both bat speed (76.3) and sprint speed (29.6).
I guess my worry, aside from recency bias is simply that Rodriguez might often find himself in the position of having his expected stats trump his actual ones. Such is the life when you play 81 games a year in the worst hitter’s park in MLB. I’m hesitant to call T-Mobile Park the complete opposite of Coors Field, but it’s not that wild a statement. Seattle ranks dead-last in Baseball Savant’s Park Factors since the beginning of 2022 and it’s not even particularly close. That’s probably why Rodriguez slashed a paltry .242/.291/.364 at home in 2024, compared to a .302/.355/.450 slash line on the road.
Add in a 15.5% swinging strike rate and sixth percentile chase rate (37.3%) and there’s just enough bad here to outweigh the abundant ceiling. This is far too much risk for a first round pick.
OF/3B Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees | NFBC ADP: 24.5
It is undeniable that Chisholm came alive with the Yankees following his trade from the Marlins. In 191 plate appearances, the now 27-year-old slashed .273/.325/.500 with 11 home runs. In total, Chisholm would finish the first full campaign of his career with 24 long balls and 40 stolen bases — the fifth-most of any players in the league. Needless to say, you don’t have to search very long to find the positives about the former top prospect’s profile.
However, it also doesn’t take very long to find the negatives. As mentioned, 2024 was the only time the oft-injured Chisholm has ever reached 600 plate appearances in his MLB tenure. It’s worth noting that his on-field results have tended to be just as inconsistent as his playing time. For his career, Chisholm is a .249 hitter with a .311 OBP and a 27.6% strikeout rate. I know there’s been speculation that the infielder might end up towards the top of the Yankees’ lineup, as the team sorts through the losses of Juan Soto and Gleyber Torres, but that archetype doesn’t exactly scream leadoff man. Neither does a 32nd percentile expected batting average (.240) or a 22nd percentile whiff rate (29.3%).
At the end of the day, Chisholm is a flawed offensive asset with a career 105 wRC+. Yes, the positional eligibility is nice and he comes with an elite trait, but steals have never been easier to find in drafts. Chisholm looked great in a small sample with New York during the end of the regular season. That’s not enough to earn a second round price tag.
SP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners | NFBC ADP: 28.6
It only took me 600 words before I contradicted myself. That’s fun.
In a vacuum, Gilbert is the absolute definition of low-risk, which sort of runs counter to what I’ve been preaching above. Yet, I do think risk should be calculated differently when it comes to pitchers, as every elbow is one pitch from exploding. Yes, there are starters who clearly have more injury concerns than others, but generally speaking, I’m looking for upside in a pitcher — especially one currently going off the board as SP4.
There’s a lot to like about Gilbert. His ground ball rate has risen every season of his career, he never walks anyone and, crucially, he’s made at least 32 starts in three straight years. He also does all this while pitching half his games at T-Mobile Park, which as we already discussed, is a pitcher’s paradise.
So, what’s not to like? Gilbert does lack the raw strikeout upside of pitchers like Garrett Crochet, Chris Sale and Cole Ragans, all of whom are typically going after Seattle’s RHP in drafts. Gilbert also benefitted from a microscopic .236 opponent BABIP in 2024, which was the second-lowest mark among all qualified starters. Still, this mostly feels like a situation where Gilbert simply happens to be in ADP limbo. Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler are pretty clearly the three best arms available. Then there’s a real drop off to the next tier of starter, whether that be because of injury risk (Jacob deGrom), age (Sale) or lack up upside. Gilbert is fine, yet it feels like you can you’re paying 110 cents on the dollar to get him. Heck, his teammate George Kirby is essentially his carbon copy. Just take him 20 picks later if you like this archetype.
