The college basketball season is beginning to hit its home stretch of the season with the NCAA Tournament inching closer on the horizon. It is a small slate of games tonight following a jam-packed weekend of hoops. Headlining tonight’s action will be Cooper Flagg and Duke traveling to face Virginia.
Once known for their elite-level defense, Virginia has struggled this year. They enter tonight’s matchup with a 13-12 record on the season and are just 6-8 in ACC Conference play. While Tony Bennett’s decision to step down before the season started is certainly related to this conversation, it has been decades since Virginia has had a defense this vulnerable. This will mark their first time being a double-digit home underdog since 2011.
These defensive issues will be problematic against a team like Duke who still has its sights set on a National Championship. Duke sits at the top of the ACC and third in the entire country. They hold a record of 22-3 overall and are 14-1 in conference play.
Cooper Flagg has been at the heart of the team’s success and he has climbed to a -200 favorite to win the Wooden Award on DraftKings Sportsbook. The likely number-one overall pick is averaging 19.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. The 6-foot-9 forward is also shooting 37.8% from beyond the three-point arc while attempting 3.9 perimeter shots per game.
Duke enters tonight’s game as 14.5-point favorites. Virginia enters as +800 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 132.5 points for this game.
Here are my top Cooper Flagg prop bets for this ACC matchup.
Best Cooper Flagg Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Cooper Flagg’s prop bets are listed at over/under 20 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 made three-pointers on DraftKings Sportsbook. Alternate lines are offered for each of these statistical categories as well.
Cooper Flagg to record 20+ Points (-135)
Cooper Flagg is averaging 19.8 points per game this season and has recorded at least 20 points in 13 of the 25 games he has played. He is the leading scorer for Duke and has a chance to impose himself against this Virginia team.
Looking at Virginia’s defense, they rank 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency. For reference, they were second in the ACC last year and first the year prior. They rank 189th in adjusted defensive efficiency since the New Year and have not ranked this poorly since the 2004-05 season. The Cavaliers are still effective at forcing turnovers, but struggle when matching up with offenses like Duke.
Flagg adjusted to the collegiate style of play quickly but has looked especially comfortable of late. He has shown an increased willingness to shoot from beyond the arc. In the first 10 conference games, Flagg shot 16-for-38 from beyond the arc. Across the five games in February, he has shot 12-for-22 from long distance. While the 54.5% shooting rate is not sustainable, the 4.4 three-point attempts across this stretch are encouraging.
Duke has the number one offense in the ACC and is built to exploit the weaknesses of opponents. Virginia has plenty of weaknesses to capitalize on and Cooper Flagg will be at the heart of the attack. Expect there to be a clear effort to get Flagg going early and for Virginia to have no answer for his combination of size and skill.
Cooper Flagg to record 7+ Rebounds (+110)
Another particular area of weakness for Virginia is the glass. They are only pulling in 22.7% of the available offense rebounds this season, the worst rate in the conference. Defensively, they are pulling in just 71.2% of defensive rebounds. While this ranks sixth in the ACC, this is still well below the Virginia standard.
Flagg has underwhelmed a bit in his rebounding production, but this is a matchup I like for him. He is still averaging 7.5 rebounds per game and has recorded at least seven boards in 16 of the 25 games he has played; plus, Flagg ranks 15th in the ACC in defensive rebounding rate.
There is some value on the board at +110 odds due to Flagg’s recent struggles. He has been held to exactly five rebounds in each of the past four games. Even still, I am buying this as just a short-term dip and Flagg can impose himself against Virginia. He has recorded as many as 12 rebounds in a game this season and there is not a clear matchup for him on the Virginia roster.
Flagg has recorded seven or more rebounds in 64% of the games thus far. Look for him to add to this against a Virginia team whose leading rebounder is averaging just 5.7 boards per game.
