As the NBA has turned more and more towards long-range shooting, the Three-Point Contest has become the de facto marquee event of All-Star Saturday night. Superstars have, by and large, opted out of participating in the Slam Dunk Contest, largely out of a fear of injury. None of the four participants in this year’s Slam Dunk Contest — Mac McClung, Stephon Castle, Matas Buzelis, and Andre Jackson Jr. — are household names, while five of the eight Three-Point Contest participants will also play in the All-Star tournament on Sunday night.
Let’s take a look at the full field, arranged by three-point percentage this season:
- Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers, 43.1% (+500 to win)
- Norman Powell, LA Clippers, 42.8% (+550)
- Cameron Johnson, Brooklyn Nets, 41.3% (+750)
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks, 39.7% (+750)
- Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks, 38.2% (+350)
- Tyler Herro, Miami Heat, 38.0% (+500)
- Buddy Hield, Golden State Warriors, 36.3% (+450)
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons, 35.1% (+1000)
Looking at each player’s shooting by zone, a couple of things stand out. Cunningham has attempted just 18 corner threes all season, and given that each player takes five shots from each spot — so 10 in total from the corners — his lack of recent in-game experience with such shots might prove to be a hurdle. Lillard, too, has only taken 34 shots from the corner this season, although he’s the two-time defending Three-Point Contest champion, so I’m not exactly concerned about him.
Powell is the only contestant who has hit more than 40% of his left corner threes, right corner threes, and threes from above the break, although for all eight players, the sample size in the corners is small enough that it’s hard to draw any definite conclusions from such data. Garland hits at a 39.4% clip from the left corner, and Johnson is at 39.7% above the break, so the criteria that isolates Powell doesn’t definitively say that he’s the most well-rounded shooter.
Prior to the 2023 contest, the NBA added two Starry Range shots from 30 feet to the contest, so I also looked at how each player has performed from between 30 and 34 feet away from the basket. Garland’s percentage from that range is an eye-popping 11-for-17 (64.7%), while Johnson has the second-best accuracy (60.0%). Powell, Cunningham, Hield, and Brunson have all attempted six or fewer shots from that deep this season, so they might struggle with that shot if they haven’t practiced it recently. Lillard and Herro have been by far the most prolific from deep, attempting 26 and 28 shots from that range, respectively, but neither of them is converting at higher than a 30% clip.
Because the contest requires gathering the ball from waist level and rising to shoot, it mimics a catch-and-shoot motion and favors players who take a high percentage of assisted shots. Four players in the contest have attempted more assisted than unassisted shots — Herro, Powell, Johnson, and Hield.
In the end, the three top scores advancing to the finals will be Johnson, Garland, and Lillard, with Powell narrowly missing out in fourth. Then, in the final, Johnson will drain a money ball in the right corner — where he converts at a 50% clip — to edge out Garland for the title.
