Only 14 matches remain in the Premier League, and after a draw in the final Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park, Liverpool is starting to feel the heat a little bit, especially after Arsenal picked up a 5-1 win over Manchester City its last time out.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for players looking to get it on the Premier League action. Here are my top betting picks for this critical weekend of action.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures for Matchweek 25:
Chelsea at Brighton & Hove Albion, 3 p.m. EST, February 14
Arsenal at Leicester City, 7:30 a.m. EST, February 15
Ipswich Town at Aston Villa, 10 a.m. EST, February 15
Nottingham Forest at Fulham, 10 a.m. EST, February 15
Newcastle United at Manchester City, 10 a.m. EST, February 15
AFC Bournemouth at Southampton, 10 a.m. EST, February 15
Brentford at West Ham United, 10 a.m. EST, February 15
Everton at Crystal Palace, 12:30 p.m. EST, February 15
Wolves at Liverpool, 9 a.m. EST, February 16
Manchester United at Tottenham Hotspur, 11:30 a.m. EST, February 16
Cole Palmer Anytime Goal Scorer (+135)
Mo Salah is running away with the Premier League’s Golden Boot race, slashing 22 shots home in just 24 matches, three ahead of Erling Haaland and five clear of Alexander Isak and Chris Wood. Tied a further three back are Bryan Mbeumo and Palmer. Chelsea’s stabilization in the table to the fringe of the Champions League places — kind of where you’d expect the Blues to be — has quieted talk about the team as big wins by Arsenal and Nottingham Forest have commanded headlines.
Palmer hasn’t found the back of the net in three consecutive Premier League matches, only the second team he has had a three-game goalless drought. Combine that with a 2-1 loss to Brighton in the FA Cup Fourth Round and Palmer now hasn’t scored in four straight matches. It’s not like he’s been horrible — in the 2-1 win over West Ham in Matchweek 24, he had seven shots, and in the 3-1 win over Wolves two weeks prior, he recorded three — but he just hasn’t found the back of the net. I back that to change later today against an opponent he bagged four first-half goals against in Matchweek 6, especially with Blues striker Nicolas Jackson out for two months with a hamstring injury.
It was a disaster for the Seagulls in all aspects of the game their last time up, when they got battered, 7-0, by Nottingham Forest, the biggest losing margin that any team has faced this season. In that demolition, Brighton gave up 3.3 expected goals, its second-highest total of the season. Its defense has been shaky all season — it ranks in the bottom half of the table in terms of both goals and expected goals conceded despite sitting in 10th overall — and it’ll have to shake off its performance its last time out. I don’t expect Chelsea to score seven, obviously, but one from Palmer isn’t too much to ask for.
Arsenal to Win by 2+ Goals (-110)
I’ll admit — I was excited for the Foxes to return to the top flight after a 2022-23 season in which everything that could’ve possibly gone wrong did. I never cared much about football, or about sports betting, until Leicester’s 2015-16 title run, still arguably the greatest Cinderella story in sports history. The Foxes just seem like a Premier League club, since they became a top-flight mainstay after their title run.
But this iteration of Leicester City clearly isn’t Premier League quality, and one season after Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town all got the axe after just one season in the top flight, it’s looking like it’ll be a three-team race for one survival spot between Ipswich Town, the Foxes, and Wolves, given that Southampton — even with a win against the Tractor Boys two weeks ago — are already all but doomed. It’d be nice for Leicester or Ipswich to stay up, but, with the exception of a 2-1 win over Tottenham in Matchweek 23, the Foxes have looked likely to suffer the drop. They have the league’s second-worst defense and fourth-worst attack.
Meanwhile, Arsenal has been easily the second-best side in the Premier League this season (what else would you expect from the Gunners?) and have hardly missed a beat despite the long-term injury to starboy Bukayo Saka. Arsenal is just coming off of a 5-1 demolition of Manchester City in Matchweek 24, a match in which they miraculously netted five goals from just 1.0 expected goals, and they have the league’s best defense and second-best attack. 10 of the Gunners’ 24 matches this season have resulted in a win by two goals or more, including a 4-2 victory over Leicester in Matchweek 6.
Antonee Robinson 1+ Assists (+300)
Honestly, I just wanted an excuse to talk about how good the American left-back has been, as an American who only became a proper football fan after the 2022 World Cup. Obviously, neither that World Cup nor the 2024 Copa America went exactly to plan for my country — certainly not the latter — but Robinson has proven himself to be the rare true American star. Over the last two seasons, he has proven himself to be one of the top flight’s best defenders.
Mohamed Salah is leading the league in both goals and assists in a season that should have him in contention to become the second-ever African Ballon d’Or winner, but you know who’s second in assists? It would be Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka alone had he not gotten injured early in the season, but instead, he’s tied on 10 assists with Robinson — a left back.
Quite simply, Robinson is the best-passing left back in the world and one of the best at dribbling while still remaining elite in all the important technical defending categories. He assisted twice in the Cottagers’ 3-2 loss to West Ham in Matchweek 21 and followed it up with an assist last week in a 2-1 upset over Newcastle. He’s having his best season in the top flight in terms of completion percentage on short, medium, and long passes, and he has 6.6 assists more than expected based on the quality of opportunities. He loves to sling crosses, and this season, Nottingham Forest has allowed more crosses than any other team.
Manchester City and Newcastle United to Draw (+300)
Two extremely rich recent Champions League sides who have both been in fairly inconsistent form and are having disappointing seasons by their standards? Yeah, that has draw written all over it. Of the two, I’d generally trust Manchester City more, but it just got throttled, 5-1, last week to Arsenal before nearly losing to League One side Leyton Orient in the FA Cup and blowing a late lead to Real Madrid in the Champions League. To make matters worse, starting center back Manuel Akanji is injured. Meanwhile, the Magpies lost to Fulham in their most recent Premier League match but beat Arsenal to advance to the EFL Cup final.
There just hasn’t been much to separate these two sides all season; they each have 41 points from 12 wins, five draws, and seven losses. They each have a goal difference of plus-13, although City has scored and conceded six more than Newcastle. Even on home-road form, Manchester City has only picked up two more points at home than the Magpies have away. As the cherry on top, these teams even drew 1-1 at St. James’ Park in Matchweek 6.
Manchester United Moneyline (+165)
While some traditional Premier League heavyweights, like Liverpool and Arsenal, battle at the top of the table, Manchester United and Tottenham got off to a rough start to the season and have never turned it around. The Red Devils sit 13th in the table, one spot ahead of Spurs, and while they’re 10 and 12 points clear of the relegation zone, respectively, to say it has been a disappointing season for either team would be the understatement of the century.
Of the two, I like United more, given that they’ve picked up four wins from their last six matches in all competitions, including seven points from their last five games in the Premier League. The Red Devils have, by and large, beaten teams they should beat, sweeping Europa League competition and picking up wins against Southampton in the Premier League and Leicester City in the FA Cup. Meanwhile, Tottenham has picked up three wins from its last eight matches and had lost four straight top flight matches before picking up a fortuitous 2-0 win over Brentford in which the Bees won the xG battle, 2.1-0.8.
To be fair, the two games that Tottenham has played since its last Premier League fixture have been tough — an away tie against Liverpool in the EFL Cup semifinals, as well as an away match to Aston Villa in the FA Cup fourth round, but Spurs lost both, while United is into the fifth round to play Fulham — an opponent it beat in the Premier League three weeks ago — on March 1. Tottenham has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, so I can’t pick them to do anything but lose.
