In the last day of games between the new-look All-Star Weekend, we’ve got a five-game slate of NBA action on our hands. The five games feature eight All-Stars who will take the court in the new tournament format on Sunday, plus the Dallas Mavericks’ Anthony Davis, who won’t suit up tonight thanks to his injury.
Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook, with one bet from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
- Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, 8 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
- LA Clippers at Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
Zach LaVine & Trey Murphy III Each to Score 20+ Points (-105)
These teams must be intimately — frustratingly — familiar with each other by now, having played in Sacramento on Saturday and New Orleans last night. They’ll face off once again at Smoothie King Center tonight for the fourth and final time this season as the Pelicans will look to avoid a season sweep. In the first of those games, LaVine had 22 points in his second game as a King and Murphy dropped 20, whereas last night LaVine scored 23 and Murphy just 19 thanks to a rare off shooting night. Still, it was the first time in seven games that Murphy did not score 20-plus points, and LaVine has scored 20 or more points in three of his five games in Sacramento.
The case for LaVine is simple; since his debut, he has led the team with a 23.6% usage rate and although he’s only averaged 19.4 points while shooting 41.0% from the field and 20.6% from beyond the arc, he has career 47-39 splits and is due for regression to the mean eventually. New Orleans’ wing depth has also been decimated after the season-ending injuries to Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray and the trade that sent Brandon Ingram to the Toronto Raptors. This season, the Pelicans have allowed 118.7 points per 100 possessions, narrowly ahead of the Washington Wizards for the worst in the league. The case for Murphy is similar: without many supplementary options, he has had to carry the heaviest offensive load of his career, especially if Zion Williamson — who hasn’t played a back-to-back since his injury return — doesn’t suit up tonight.
Golden State Warriors +6 (-112)
After criticizing Golden State and Jimmy Butler for most of the season, I have to give credit where credit’s due — the Warriors are 2-1 since introducing the mercurial former Miami man, and to his credit, Butler has averaged 22.0 points and 1.7 steals per game, looking more locked in on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. His spacing has also cleared up more room for Stephen Curry to operate, and Curry has responded with one of his better three-game stretches of the season, averaging 32.3 points and shooting 40.0% from deep alongside Butler. Since adding Butler, Golden State’s plus-11.0 net rating is the sixth-best in basketball.
Meanwhile, Houston has struggled in recent games, even though it picked up narrow wins over the Toronto Raptors and Phoenix Suns in its last two contests. Since All-Star Alperen Şengün returned from the calf strain that cost him three games, the Rockets are still just 2-3 with a negative-2.3 net rating, including a disgusting last-minute collapse against the Brooklyn Nets on February 4, and they’ll still be without starting point guard Fred VanVleet, who has plus-5.5 on-off splits this season. Barring late scratches on the second night of a back-to-back — the 36-year-old Curry, 35-year-old Butler, and 34-year-old Draymond Green are all names to watch — the Warriors should cover the spread comfortably.
Anthony Edwards Most Points (+180)
Should I be fading Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the rightful MVP front-runner who is averaging 35.1 points per game over his past 10 games and hasn’t scored fewer than 25 points since December 28? Probably not. But in five games since Timberwolves power forward Julius Randle went down with a groin injury, robbing Edwards of the only other player on Minnesota’s roster who can reliably create his own shot, Edwards has carried a huge offensive load, leading the league with a 38.1% usage rate — 3.9 percentage points higher than Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s in second — and has averaged 36.6 points per game across that stretch. His shot was ghastly last night — 10-for-33 from the field, four-for-17 from deep — but he’s not going to struggle two nights in a row.
Oklahoma City won’t make things easier for Edwards, given that they have the best defense in the league — 4.1 points per 100 possessions better than the second-place Clippers — but Edwards is one of the rare players who can get his regardless of the defense. He did only score 20 points in the teams’ first matchup this season, while Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 40, but he’s had his way against other top defenses as well, including a 37-point outburst against LA and a 41-point game against Houston. Plus, the Timberwolves’ sixth-ranked defense is no slouch either, and Gilgeous-Alexander might be slowed down somewhat by his own cousin, Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (+102)
Was 21-year-old wing Max Christie the best player who was traded into or out of Dallas during the trade deadline?
I’m obviously kidding, but Christie has been amazing since making his Mavericks debut — averaging 17.0 points per game and shooting 54.5% from deep — and Dallas has remained competitive despite losing every center on their roster, including the newly-acquired Anthony Davis, to injuries. The Mavericks managed to beat Golden State yesterday while starting Kessler Edwards at center and Olivier-Maxence Prosper at power forward as Christie scored 17 points and Kyrie Irving had 42 points and seven assists.
It might be unfair to expect 42 again from Irving, but it is fair to expect that Klay Thompson will shoot better than six-for-19 from the field. I’d also take the Warriors since adding Butler over the Heat since getting rid of him, although it’s hard to say since Miami has played some difficult opponents. In three games since dealing Butler, the Heat lost by 16 to the suddenly hot Nets before dropping 18- and 14-point decisions to the Boston Celtics and Thunder, respectively. They took a surprising lead over Oklahoma City before collapsing with just eight points in the fourth quarter, shooting three-for-18 and failing to draw even one free-throw attempt in the period. It’ll be close, but I like Dallas at plus-money.
Isaiah Collier Double-Double (+160)
The league leader in assists among rookies is Collier, with 5.8 per game, 1.8 per game more than second-place Bub Carrington. The 29th overall pick hasn’t done much to prove that he’s Utah’s franchise point guard of the future — averaging 6.6 points per game on nauseating 41-21-64 shooting splits — but the kid knows how to swing the rock. He has gradually earned more playing time and become the starter over Keyonte George, and since usurping George 11 games ago, he has averaged 11.7 points and 9.1 assists per game, dropping four double-doubles in his last six games and finishing merely an assist shy last night. Three of his double-doubles have come with former sixth man of the year Jordan Clarkson — a 37.9% three-point shooter this season — back in action.
It won’t be easy for Collier tonight, given that the Clippers have the league’s second-best defense and allow the sixth-fewest assists per game, but I’m not sure who will actually suit up for LA. Kawhi Leonard won’t, as he’s been ruled out with knee injury management, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyronn Lue plays it safe with James Harden and Norman Powell, too, especially with Harden participating in the All-Star tournament. The Clippers are especially good at preventing assists when Leonard, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, is on the floor, and without him and his seven-foot-three wingspan, they might struggle to close off Collier’s passing lanes.
