There are maybe five players in the NBA who are truly untouchable. Two of them will take the court tonight against each other when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder travel north to face Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves for a nationally-televised 8:30 p.m. ET clash.
This season, the Thunder are running away with the Western Conference, holding an 8.5-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies with one game to go before the All-Star break, and the Timberwolves are fairly certain to at least have a Play-In Tournament bid.
Oklahoma City is a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-325 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 222. Meanwhile, Minnesota is +260 on the Moneyline.
Here are my favorite prop bets for our last look at Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards before they’ll face off in the All-Star tournament on Sunday.
Rudy Gobert Double-Double (+105)
The four-time Defensive Player of the Year has started to show some signs of his age this year, struggling to adjust alongside new acquisition Julius Randle, who the Timberwolves added in an offseason blockbuster for Karl-Anthony Towns. But Minnesota’s spacing — which has been horrendous this season — has improved dramatically in the seven games since Randle went down with a groin injury, and Gobert has been arguably the biggest beneficiary, averaging 15.0 points and 12.4 rebounds per game across that stretch while shooting 67.7% from the field. He has posted six double-doubles in those seven games, missing out by two rebounds in a blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are a nearly perfect team with one glaring flaw — their complete inability to control the glass. Oklahoma City allows the fewest points, fourth-fewest rebounds, and fewest steals in the league while forcing by far the most turnovers. It holds opponents to the lowest percentage from the field and from three, and even the second-lowest at the free throw line. But the Thunder also concede 45.4 rebounds per game, the eighth-most in basketball, and even the returns of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren haven’t helped matters much. Gobert should have no problem getting his rebound total; it’s whether he’ll score 10 points that’s the question. He scored only eight in the teams’ first matchup on December 31, but Randle was healthy for that game.
Chet Holmgren 3+ Blocks (+150)
Holmgren hasn’t been a huge factor offensively since returning from the hip fracture that cost him 39 games. In two appearances — limited to 24 minutes per game — he’s scored just 16 total points and 11 rebounds while shooting six-for-15 (40.0%) from the field and two-for-six (33.3%) from beyond the arc. However, he’s been a ball-wrecking menace on defense, posting three steals and nine blocks already. In his 12 appearances this season, he’s averaging 2.9 blocks per game, second in the league behind Victor Wembanyama. He hasn’t played a back-to-back, but since he didn’t suit up yesterday, he probably will play tonight.
The Timberwolves don’t get blocked often — they’re just 12th in that category — so this is more about Holmgren than it is about anything regarding Minnesota. They have been a little bit worse since losing Randle, falling to 20th in block prevention in their last seven games. Gobert and Edwards — along with Randle — are both among 49 players to have been blocked at least 40 times this season.
Isaiah Joe O2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+105)
Neither Oklahoma City nor Minnesota allows many made three-pointers, with each conceding just 12.6 triples per game. What’s more, the Thunder allow the lowest three-point percentage in the league, while the Timberwolves rank fourth. Minnesota’s three-point defense has slipped slightly since Randle’s injury, as it’s allowed the 12th-highest three point percentage in the league over the last seven games, but that hardly has to do with Randle, who has allowed opponents to shoot 1.2 percentage points higher from beyond the arc when he is the nearest defender.
Instead, it’s more of a bet on Joe, who has taken significant strides in his fifth season and has become a trusted option in Mark Daigneault’s rotation. He’s a 39.8% three-point shooter for his career and is averaging a career-high 9.7 points per game this season. His improvement has not gone unnoticed; after playing just 20.5 minutes per game in his first 38 games of the season, Joe has averaged 24.4 minutes over his last 10 games, shooting 49.3% from deep and making three or more threes six times. His clutch shooting was critical in helping Oklahoma City to a 24-0 run to open the fourth quarter yesterday against Miami, and he’ll be a valuable shooting option again tonight with Cason Wallace set to miss his seventh straight game.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
