Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Heat big man Bam Adebayo to have a 50% chance to play today. Adebayo was a late addition to the injury report as questionable with a left knee contusion; with the Heat already down a few regular rotational pieces like Terry Rozier and the newly acquired Andrew Wiggins, Adebayo’s status is crucial as it relates to minutes and opportunity in their matchup at Dallas.
Bam Adebayo has played at a 1.13 DraftKings Points Per Minute pace this year as he puts up 23.1% usage, a 16.1% rebound rate and a 21.3% rebound rate. Those rates go even higher without the missing Heat players, in addition to Bam’s former teammate Jimmy Butler. If Bam Adebayo plays tonight, he may be an interesting option for DraftKings tournaments as well as prop betting markets. Dallas severely lacks in big men with the current injuries to Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively and even Dwight Powell; that could open up huge opportunity for Adebayo if he can play.
If Bam Adebayo does play, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would have him projected for 18.2 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists. Even though Unabated’s bet simulation tools expect 11.8% Expected Value on Bam Adebayo’s under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook, Adebayo would be an interesting and potentially low-owned play on the DFS slate.
If Adebayo sits, here’s the expected changes to some of his key Heat teammates’ projections according to Unabated NBA’s data:
- Tyler Herro projects for 25.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists (24.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists if Bam plays)
- Kel’el Ware projects for 14.9 points, 11.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists (11.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.0 assist if Bam plays)
- Duncan Robinson projects for 12.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists (11.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists if Bam plays)
- Nikola Jovic projects for 12.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists (12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists if Bam plays)
- Jaime Jaquez projects for 8.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists (6.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists if Bam plays)
In addition to becoming a much more appealing play on tonight’s DraftKings DFS slate, there would also be a massive 21.8% Expected Value on the over for Kel’el Ware’s 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook if Bam Adebayo sits. With Dallas also at risk of sitting a questionable Kyrie Irving on a back-to-back following a game where he played 40 minutes, a lot of key components are up in the air for the Heat-Mavs tonight.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.