Kristaps Porzingis mystified the NBA in his first couple of seasons as a seven-foot-two sniper who could stretch the floor, finish at the rim, and protect the paint.
Now, Porzingis has evolved, conceptually speaking, to Victor Wembanyama, a man who can do all the same things as prime Porzingis could, but better. His San Antonio Spurs aren’t ready to be competitive yet — they’re just 23-28 this season and have a below-average defense despite Wembanyama being a shoo-in for Defensive Player of the Year — but they’re certainly fun to watch. They’ll take on Porzingis’ Boston Celtics tonight at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Massachusetts.
Boston is a 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-360 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 233.5. Meanwhile, San Antonio is +285 on the Moneyline.
Here are my favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points (+105)
In theory, this should be a tough matchup for Wembanyama, given that the Celtics have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this season and opponents have shot 16.3 percentage points worse within six feet of the basket when guarded by Porzingis, the best among players who have played at least 25 games and faced at least five such attempts per game (if you’re wondering, Wembanyama’s third in that category). It’s also a matchup that, if anything, De’Aaron Fox should thrive in, given that point guard Jrue Holiday, a six-time All-Defensive honoree, is out, and a huge Fox performance should limit Wembanyama’s shots.
What sways me here is that Christmas Day game. Entering the game, those New York Knicks looked to be a bad matchup for Wembanyama, given Karl-Anthony Towns’ imposing presence on the boards and improved defensive metrics. But the towering Frenchman who lives for big moments stepped up with 42 points and 18 rebounds, nearly single-handedly dragging San Antonio to a win. Of course, he’s had mediocre games on national television too, but given that he’s not scheduled to suit up again until the All-Star Skills Challenge on Saturday night, he has no reason not to go all-out and prove to the world that while Boston may dominate in the short-term, the Spurs are next up.
According to The Ringer, Wembanyama is the sixth-best player in the NBA, while the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum is fifth. Wembanyama’s the ultimate competitor; don’t you think he’ll want to prove that he’s better than Tatum tonight?
Stephon Castle O14.5 Points + Assists (-115)
Fox’s arrival hasn’t made things any more difficult for Castle, the rookie lottery pick who is more or less untouchable in a trade for anyone who’s not a perennial All-Star and was likely off the table in Fox negotiations. He’s the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year, and he proved why in a narrow win over the Charlotte Hornets on February 7, posting a team-high 33 points, the fourth-best scoring performance by a rookie this season. In four games since Fox’s debut, Castle has averaged 18.8 points and 2.3 assists per game on 56-46-83 shooting splits, and he has recorded 15 or more combined points and assists in each of his last three games.
Plus, while Boston as a team allows the fourth-fewest points and third-fewest assists per game, Castle should have a good matchup against Sixth Man of the Year favorite Payton Pritchard, who is a mediocre defender. While opponents shoot 2.3 percentage points worse overall when guarded by Pritchard this season, his defensive metrics are still some of the worst on the team. Of the nine players on the Celtics’ roster who have played at least 800 total minutes this season, Pritchard has given up the fourth-most assists per 36 minutes and allowed opponents to shoot the third-highest field goal percentage.
Al Horford 7+ Rebounds (+115)
The fact that the big Dominican is still an NBA starting center at the age of 38 is pretty impressive, and Boston’s 2024 title run arguably cemented his place in the Hall of Fame. His counting stats this season don’t pop off the page — he is averaging career lows in every single major statistical category except steals, and he’s been less efficient than his career average — but the Celtics still outscore opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, 4.2 points better than when he sits. Strangely enough, he — not Tatum, Jaylen Brown, or Derrick White — has benefited the most from Jrue Holiday’s shoulder injury, as he’s returned to the starting lineup and played nearly 30 minutes per game across Holiday’s three-game absence.
In three of his last four games, Horford has snagged at least eight rebounds, and he should be able to do so again tonight against a San Antonio team that has allowed the fifth-most rebounds to opposing teams. Part of it has to do with interim head coach Mitch Johnson’s schemes; especially when the Spurs are on offense, their only dangerous rebounder — Wembanyama — often operates around the perimeter, allowing opponents to clean up the defensive glass. Also, when San Antonio is on defense, Wembanyama will often contest the shooter, leaving the glass exposed for offensive rebounds.
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