Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Celtics star Jaylen Brown to have a 50% chance to play today. Brown missed the Celtics’ last game and currently remains on the injury report with right knee soreness. With Spurs-Celtics a marquee game on ESPN tonight and Boston already without Jrue Holiday, Brown’s status will have a huge impact on tonight’s DraftKings tournaments and prop betting markets.
Brown has put up a 31% usage rate, 9% rebound rate and 24.1% assist rate in court time without Holiday this season, good for 1.2 DraftKings Points Per Minute. If Brown were to miss, he’d leave behind a lot of opportunity without two of Boston’s starters.
If Brown plays, he projects for 22.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.2 assists. Brown seems around the industry to be a fairly popular play on DraftKings tournaments tonight with around 10% projected ownership.
If Brown sits, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would see the following swings to other key Celtics’ projections:
- Jayson Tatum projects for 30 points, 8 rebounds and 6.2 assists (26.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists if Brown plays)
- Derrick White projects for 17.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.4 assists (15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists if Brown plays)
- Kristaps Porzingis projects for 22.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists (20 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists if Brown plays)
- Al Horford projects for 9.9 points, 6 rebounds and 2.3 assists (8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists if Brown plays)
If Brown sits, Unabated’s bet simulation tools would find 9.2% Expected Value on Derrick White’s over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on DraftKings Sportsbook, 6.5% EV on Jayson Tatum’s over 42.5 PRAs, and a team-high 11.3% EV on Kristaps Porzingis’ over 29.5 PRAs. Brown’s status is a key to watch (among many others!) on tonight’s mammoth 15-game slate.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
