Let’s give some props to DraftKings for timing, right?
On Tuesday, as pitchers and catchers around the league were reporting to Spring Training, MLB Best Ball returned to the contest lobby. Baseball is back, friends. Let us celebrate.
For anyone unfamiliar with MLB Best Ball, here’s a quick tutorial. You draft a team of 20 players, comprised of infielders, outfielder and pitchers. Each week throughout the season, your three highest-scoring assets at each position will be your starting lineup. There are no roster moves after draft day. It’s all locked in.
With that in mind, let’s dip our toe back in the waters of baseball by breaking down some early ADP trends in the first round of drafts. Who is going too high? Who is being undervalued? Who simply stands out?
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Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (P1)
In DraftKings internal site rankings, sophomore Paul Skenes is the top pitcher in Best Ball for 2025. While that might seem a little early for a man who has thrown just 133.0 innings at the MLB level, it’s difficult to overstate how dominating Skenes was last season. Let’s say he won NL Rookie of the Year for a reason.
Among pitchers that threw at least 130 innings, Skenes ranked first in ERA (1.96), second in FIP (2.44) and second in strikeout rate (33.1%). That last point is key. Just as with DraftKings MLB DFS, strikeouts are the lifeblood of pitcher value in Best Ball. For context, two strikeouts is worth as much as a win (+4 FPTS) in this format. That means you should be on the hunt for gentlemen that rack up the whiffs. I doubt Skenes will have much issue staying an elite source of strikeouts in 2025, as evidenced by a 13.1% swinging strike rate and his 89th percentile fastball velocity (96.8).
The only hesitation the 22-year-old is raw volume. As mentioned above, Skenes threw 133.0 innings with the Pirates in 2024. Still, if you add in his seven starts in Triple-A, Skenes is suddenly up over 160 frames. This isn’t 1980. There are so few pitchers that can be expected to throw over 200 innings in a season. In fact, only four men did it in 2024 after just five accomplished the feat in 2023. Maybe Skenes is limited to around 175 innings in 2025 — especially if Pittsburgh is out of the playoff race down the stretch. With his immaculate ratios, that should be more than enough action to justify a first-round pick, though someone like Zach Wheeler (P3) does present a more secure floor. Well, as secure a floor as exists with a pitcher. Every elbow is a ticking time bomb.
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (IF2)
Here’s where we start to get into overrated territory. I’m not going to say that De La Cruz isn’t one of the most tantalizing athletes in all of baseball, but he’s a perfect example of a fantasy asset that doesn’t quite translate from season-long formats to Best Ball. A stolen base (+5 FPTS) does have value in Best Ball, but there are several ways of getting to that same output. This isn’t rotisserie or head-to-head categories where you need to fill a certain quota specifically for steals.
When you take away that statistical scarcity — and De La Cruz’s most elite and established trait — you’re left with a profile with a number of red flags. In a campaign where De La Cruz was healthy enough to play in 160 games and make the ninth-most plate appearances of any hitter (696), he failed to rank inside the top 10 in any of the three major counting stats (home runs, RBI and runs). A large reason for that is the 23-year-old’s inability to make consistent contact. De La Cruz sported a sixth percentile strikeout rate in 2024 (31.3%), which translated into a 32nd percentile expected batting average (.240). Consider that the shortstop hit .259 last season but needed the league’s fourth-highest qualified BABIP (.359) to do so. If De La Cruz gets a little unlucky with health or on batted ball events, suddenly things could get a little bleak.
There’s also the outcome where a former top prospect with otherworldly tools takes another step forward while playing half his games at one of the best hitter’s parks in MLB. De La Cruz could easily make me look foolish in six months time, yet I think there’s more safety in Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor, who are all currently ranked behind him.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (OF5)
If you’re only remembering last season’s woes, a first-round price tag might seem a little steep for Corbin Carroll. However, I’m here to tell you that his 2024 campaign wasn’t as bad as you think. I mean, this isn’t a Mandela Effect situation. Carroll was underwhelming, finishing the year slashing .231/.322/.428 with a 107 wRC+. That’s not what was anticipated from the reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner and a key component of the Diamondbacks shocking run to the World Series.
However, despite all that, Corbin still finished the season with 22 home runs, 35 stolen bases and 121 runs scored — the second-most of any qualified National League player, trailing only Shohei Ohtani. That’s pretty good company. That’s also a pretty decent “underwhelming” outcome. Carroll isn’t that far removed from a .285 average and a 132 wRC+ in 2023. His strikeout rate in 2024 was nearly identical (19.0%). As was his barrel rate (7.2%) and his GB/FB ratio (1.13). Heck, though his average exit velocity did dip to 89.3 mph, it was only at 90.0 mph in his rookie year. The big difference truly appears to be luck, as Carroll went from a .325 BABIP to a .256 mark in 2024. A figure that was among the 15-lowest in baseball.
If Carroll gets back to his form from two years ago, he’s a steal at the end of the first round. Even if he just finds a middle ground, he’s sure to be a stud. Really, he’s almost the inverse scenario of the aforementioned Elly De La Cruz. In any case, if you thought you were getting a major discount on the former top prospect heading into 2025, you were mistaken.
