Despite getting healthy again, the Orlando Magic have been unable to limit the damage. They’re just 4-6 in their last 10 games, and now they’re two and a half games behind the red-hot Detroit Pistons for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. Orlando still has a five-game lead over the Philadelphia 76ers in 11th, so it’s almost guaranteed to make the Play-In Tournament at the very least, but this surely isn’t how the Magic saw their season going.
It hasn’t been Franz Wagner’s fault. The six-foot-10 German wing has played 10 games since his return from an oblique tear that cost him a month and a half, but he’s averaged 27.8 points on 46-32-83 shooting splits, scoring 30 points five times. Tonight, Orlando will host the Charlotte Hornets at 7 p.m. ET.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Magic are 12.5-point favorites — Charlotte will be without oft-injured point guard LaMelo Ball and center Mark Williams — and the point total is set to 203. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Wagner.
Best Franz Wagner Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Franz Wagner First to 15 Points (+140)
As is typical for games in which one team is so clearly overmatched that the line is double digits, I’m staying away from Wagner’s full-game points total because I’m concerned that Orlando — even as bad as it’s been in the past couple of weeks — will blow out the Hornets and Wagner will sit for most of the game. It happened yesterday, when Cade Cunningham and the Pistons had a 42-point lead at halftime against the Chicago Bulls, and it has happened several times with the LA Clippers’ Norman Powell. In the last game the Magic won by double-digits, Wagner did have 31 points in just 26 minutes.
Charlotte does have an above-average defense, posting the league’s 11th-best defensive rating over its last 10 games, so Wagner might not get his 15 points super quickly, but given the Hornets’ injuries, it’s hard to predict anything about their performance. Wagner’s greatest competition to reach that threshold is his teammate, Paolo Banchero, but over the last 10 games, Wagner has posted a 34.7% usage rate, 3.9 percentage points higher than Banchero’s. Over that span, Banchero has been in a dreadful slump, posting 39-21-61 shooting splits and scoring 20 points just four times. I’d also keep an eye out for Charlotte’s Miles Bridges, who could post high enough usage to beat Wagner to 15 points without any other reliable options on his team.
Franz Wagner O1.5 Steals (+175)
This is probably a prop that Wagner won’t hit if he retires to the bench early, given that he’s only recorded three or more steals five times this season. However, the Hornets don’t take great care of the ball, with or without Ball, who ranks seventh in the league in turnovers. Overall, they’ve allowed the 13th-most steals per game this season, including the ninth-most over their last 10 games. On a per-possession basis, reserve guards KJ Simpson and Isaiah Wong are both more turnover-prone than Ball, and Nick Smith Jr. has the same turnover rate that he does. In general, stars being out typically results in more turnovers, which should play perfectly into Wagner’s hands.
Wagner has improved steadily throughout his four-year NBA career, and this season, his metrics have been especially strong as a defender. After grading as a positive defender for the first time last season, posting a plus-0.3 defensive box plus-minus, he has taken another step this season, with his DBPM now up to plus-1.0. He’s also averaging a career-high 1.5 steals and 2.6 deflections per game, and he’s recorded two or more steals in three of his last five games.
