During the most shocking trade deadline in NBA history, there were several teams that made calls to inquire about the availability of Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant, including — reportedly — the Golden State Warriors, the team with which he won his only two championships and finals MVP’s.
Another suitor was the Memphis Grizzlies, who are currently the second seed in the Western Conference, eight games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Grizzlies sit at 35-17 despite point guard Ja Morant missing 21 games and posting the second-worst shooting efficiency of his career, while the Suns are 26-26, currently outside the Play-In Tournament picture.
The two teams will meet tonight at 10 p.m. for a slightly awkward nationally-televised clash. Memphis is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 246. Meanwhile, Phoenix is +160 on the Moneyline.
Here are my favorite prop bets from the game, starting with a shot at history.
Kevin Durant 27+ Points (-120)
There are seven players in NBA history who have scored at least 30,000 points: LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Dirk Nowitzki, and Wilt Chamberlain. Tonight, the 36-year-old Durant will have a chance to join the illustrious company, an incredible feat given that he has appeared in just 251 of a possible 442 regular-season games dating back to his first season with the Brooklyn Nets in 2019-20; his 27.25 career points per game mark the sixth-highest average in league history. He needs 26 points against the Grizzlies to reach the 30,000 point plateau, something he has done in 21 of his 32 games so far this season.
Memphis won’t necessarily make that easy, given that it has the league’s seventh-best defensive rating so far this season and is one of the hottest teams in the league. However, the Grizzlies also play at the league’s fastest pace, so they give up points in bunches, allowing the ninth-most points per game this season. In particular, Memphis has struggled against opposing power forwards despite former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. playing the position, so Durant should have plenty of chances to score. It’s likely that rookie wing Jaylen Wells will draw the Durant assignment, and this season, opponents have shot 1.0 percentage points better than usual from the field when guarded by Wells.
Zach Edey O7.5 Rebounds (+105)
Edey, a long shot in a tightly-contested Rookie of the Year race, has started to find his groove in recent weeks, having scored double-digit points in five of his last eight games and averaging 11.8 points and 9.1 rebounds in 21.2 minutes per game across that span. He’s also posted five double-digit rebounding performances across that stretch, including a 15-board show in a blowout win over the Toronto Raptors on February 5. Edey had a horrible game in his most recent outing, scoring just five points and snagging just two rebounds, but, to be fair, it came in a loss to Oklahoma City.
Meanwhile, the Suns’ issues with interior play have been well-documented this year, leading them to dump center Jusuf Nurkić — and a first-round pick — to the Charlotte Hornets, from whom they acquired center Nick Richards a few weeks ago. In 12 games with Richards in the starting lineup, Phoenix’s defense has improved from 25th to 20th in the league, but it has still allowed the fourth-most boards of any team in the league over that span. Overall, Richards has been fantastic, but he alone can’t solve the Suns’ woes. He’s also posting a career-low free throw attempt rate, which could be good for Edey, who averages the fourth-most fouls among 339 players who play fewer than 24 minutes per game.
Grayson Allen U2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
The sharp-shooting Allen has been one of Phoenix’s most important players over the last two seasons, canning a league-high 46.1% of his three-point attempts during the 2023-24 season and following it up with 43.5% accuracy this season, the second-best mark among 106 players hoisting at least five three-point attempts per night. He has made three or more three-pointers in six of his last seven games, shooting 48.0% from deep across that span.
However, any time you can get plus-odds on an under prop, it’s a pretty enticing bet. That’s doubly true when you consider that Allen’s two most recent outbursts — a three-for-seven performance against the Thunder and a seven-for-14 outing at home against Utah — came without Durant in the lineup. With Durant back, Allen won’t continue to have the 20.3% usage rate that he logged over those two games.
The Grizzlies do give up 13.9 made threes per game, the ninth-most in the league, but their defenders have excelled at getting contests, since opponents have hit them at just a 35.1% clip, the fourth-stingiest mark in basketball. Memphis opponents have shot 0.6 percentage points worse than usual, the eighth-best in the league. Even Morant, who’s not a great defender by any metric, forces a 4.3 percentage-point dip in long-range accuracy when he is the nearest defender.
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