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NBA Value Pick: Start Terry Rozier in DFS if Tyler Herro is ruled out

NBA Value Pick: Start Terry Rozier in DFS if Tyler Herro is ruled out

Published:

By: Zach Thompson

On Monday, the Heat start the final week before the All-Star break by hosting the defending champion Celtics in South Beach. However, the team added Tyler Herro ($8,200; illness) to the injury report as questionable and also ruled out Jaime Jaquez Jr. (illness). While the Heat are working to get new acquisitions into their rotation, Terry Rozier ($4,800) could be the best value on the board if Herro is ruled out. Let’s take a look at how Scary Terry is playing coming into this matchup against his former team.

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PG Terry Rozier, Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics, $4,800

Rozier’s season overall has been pretty “meh,” but he’s definitely been trending up since the Jimmy Butler saga and eventual trade. On the season, he’s averaging 23.8 fantasy points on 12.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.9 assists in 28.3 minutes per game.

In four of his last five games, Rozier has hit multiple three-pointers and scored at least 19 points. He has over 30 fantasy points in each of those four games, including on Friday in Brooklyn, when he had 20 points and 33 fantasy points in the Heat’s most recent contest.

Rozier played just one game without Jaquez and Butler this season and hasn’t played any games without both Butler and Herro. In his one game without Herro, though, his usage jumped almost five percentage points. In his minutes without Herro or Butler on the floor, he also gets a big usage boost.

Since he’s been trending in the right direction and could be in for extra work, Rozier brings a very high ceiling if Herro is out. He will be a strong value play at this price if he continues to produce 30+ fantasy points per game, and more usage would raise his ceiling for a matchup that also has a little revenge game narrative potential.

Zach has been part of the DraftKings team since 2017 and covers baseball, basketball, golf, football and any other sport that offers DFS fun. He has been playing fantasy sports since box scores were only available in the newspaper the following day. Even though he grew up almost 8,000 miles away in Guam, he is a diehard Boston sports fan but will take a fantasy value play wherever he can get it, even if it’s from the Yankees.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.