With the dust settling from last night’s Super Bowl, the NBA will officially step into center stage of the sports world. The trade deadline has passed and rosters are just about entirely complete and set in.
There will be 10 games taking place across the night’s slate.
Starting at 7:00 p.m. ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers will play the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Washington Wizards will host the San Antonio Spurs and the Orlando Magic will face off against the Atlanta Hawks. A half-hour later, the Miami Heat will play the Boston Celtics and the Brooklyn Nets will face the Charlotte Hornets.
At 8:00 p.m. ET, the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the New Orleans Pelicans while the Milwaukee Bucks are set to play the Golden State Warriors. The Dallas Mavericks will host the Sacramento Kings following the unfortunate injury news surrounding Anthony Davis. In the final two games of the night, the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets will face off before the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers square off in the expected debut of Luka Doncic.
With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Feb. 10 slate of games.
Chris Paul 15+ Points & Assists (-120)
The addition of De’Aaron Fox altered Chris Paul’s role in the offense, but there is still plenty of room for him to continue producing for San Antonio. The 39-year-old is averaging 9.3 points and 8.1 assists across his 29.0 minutes per game this season. Paul has still clocked 26+ minutes in all three games since the Fox trade and is averaging 14.7 combined points and assists in those three games. This occurs while he is shooting 50% or worse from the field in all three matchups.
Looking at tonight’s game, the Spurs will face the Wizards. Washington enters with a league-worst 9-43 record and ranking last in opponent points per game, 28th in opponent assists allowed and 25th in opponent field-goal percentage. This is the second matchup between these teams this season with Paul finishing with nine points and 11 assists in the first game. The Wizards also allow the fourth-most points to opposing point guards of any team in the league. San Antonio has improved its chances of contention following the trade for Fox but still must figure out how to get everyone on the same page. Expect the Spurs to use matchups like this to play through their mistakes and fully establish their new-look offense.
Even at his advanced age, Paul is one of their more important win-now players who is still playing at a respectable level. Count on him to remain involved and hold responsibility for running the offense for stretches at a time. He has recorded 15 or more combined points and assists in 30 of the 50 games he has played this season. Look for him to add to this and be at the epicenter of the Spurs offense tonight.
Anthony Edwards Under 30.5 Points (-105)
The Minnesota Timberwolves will face off with the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers. This will be a difficult matchup for points to come by as both teams lean on a defensive-minded approach. The Cavaliers are allowing just 12.1 points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, which is the best rate in the league.
Anthony Edwards is far from your average shooting guard, but the two-time All-Star is averaging just 27.2 points per game this season. He has been held to under 30.5 points in 35 of the 51 games he has played. This includes scoring 28 points in the previous matchup with the Cavaliers. Minnesota has played at the fourth-slowest pace of play over the past 25 games, so don’t expect an abundance of additional offensive possessions.
Edwards will still surely make his impact felt, but his point prop has increased as he is coming off back-to-back 40+-point performances. However, he missed the previous game with hip soreness and will be at the top of the Cavaliers’ defensive priority list assuming he returns tonight. It should be noted he is officially listed as questionable so his status will be one to monitor leading up to tip-off. Assuming he does play, the 30.5-point prop line is too steep based on the caliber of defense he will face. Expect him to be held under this for the 36th time this season.
Max Christie Over 12.5 Points (-120)
The fallout of the blockbuster Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis trade continues. But one surprising bright spot to exceed expectations in the early games has been Max Christie. The former 35th-overall pick has been granted more freedom in the Dallas offense than was the case in Los Angeles and is revealing some additional layers to his game. Across his opening three games with the Mavericks, Christie is averaging 17.7 points per game and has scored over 12.5 points in all three of these games. He has also scored over 12.5 points in five consecutive games dating back to when he was still wearing a Lakers jersey.
Dallas will prepare to face off against the Sacramento Kings who have plenty of defensive concerns. So far this season, they rank 22nd in opponent points per game, 17th in opponent field-goal percentage and 29th in opponent three-point percentage. Christie has faced the Kings four times already this season with him recording as many as 16 points in a matchup.
With the Mavericks set to be without Anthony Davis, count on Christie to continue to see an expanded offensive role. He is averaging 10.3 field-goal attempts per game thus far with the Mavericks after launching just 6.3 per game during the start of the season with the Lakers. Look for him to continue playing with the same level of offensive freedom and record over 12.5 points against a struggling defense for his sixth straight game.
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-130)
There will be plenty of eyes on the final matchup of the night with Luka Doncic expected to make his Lakers debut. The five-time All-NBA guard has not played since Christmas due to his calf injury. There is no doubt about his level of talent but how quickly he can fit into the Lakers system will be interesting to watch. Based on his high level of basketball IQ and the way the team will be looking to jump-start his fit, don’t expect the learning curve to be very steep.
Looking at the season overall, Doncic is taking 9.6 three-point attempts per game and connecting at a 35.4% rate. This comes out to 3.4 made three-pointers per game and he has recorded four or more long-range makes in 10 of the 22 games he has played this season. Utah also ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent three-point attempts allowed, giving up 40.4 perimeter shots per game. The Jazz have also played at the seventh-fastest pace of play on the road this season, so there should be some additional offensive opportunities.
Expect a clear effort from Doncic to assert himself and for the Los Angeles crowd to be ready to eat it up. With the three-point line being a weakness of the Jazz and Doncic more than comfortable in attacking from the perimeter, I like his chances of getting hot from the three-point line. Last year’s scoring champion has faced off with this Jazz team already this season and was 1-for-9 from beyond the three-point arc and 4-for-13 in these two games. With this level of volume on the table, count on Doncic to connect on at least four three-pointers in his Lakers debut.
