Nine days after his shocking trade to the Los Angeles Lakers made ripples across the NBA, Luka Dončić is likely to suit up for the first time tonight in the purple and gold as the Lakers take on the Utah Jazz at 10:30 p.m. ET. Dončić and LeBron James recently got upgraded to probable, with Dončić still dealing with the calf strain he suffered on Christmas Day and James dealing with an ankle injury.
Los Angeles has been the hottest team in the league in recent weeks, with a 9-1 record in its last 10 games and a league-best plus-14.7 net rating across that span, even though Anthony Davis missed several of those games with an abdominal injury. Meanwhile, the Jazz have a negative-8.8 net rating over their last 10 games despite having an almost completely healthy roster.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lakers are 12.5-point favorites (-700 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 234.5. Meanwhile, Utah is +500 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
Unsurprisingly, most bettors are backing Los Angeles to emerge victorious, given its already exceptional form before adding Dončić. From the EuroLeague to the Dallas Mavericks, Dončić is a winner, owning a career 56.9% winning percentage, and with no disrespect to Kyrie Irving, James is the most talented teammate he’ll have ever played with. The Jazz have been experts at finding ways to lose this season, playing teams competitively before falling narrowly at the end, and it’s entirely possible that the game will be competitive, even though the Lakers are clearly the better team on paper. Some big-money bettors are banking on Dončić and James taking a while to develop their on-court chemistry, as Utah has attracted 38% of the handle despite accounting for only 12% of the bets.
The public is also confident on Los Angeles to cover the spread, with 70% of bets and 68% of the handle being placed on the Lakers to win by at least 13 points. This season, Los Angeles has somewhat over-performed, recording a 27-22-1 record against the spread, and the Jazz have played about as expected, with a 25-25-1 record against the spread. Utah has covered the spread in both of the teams’ previous two matchups this season, although the Lakers’ roster obviously looks extremely different after the trade deadline blockbuster.
Bettors are also high on both teams’ offenses, especially big-money bettors; the over has attracted 57% of bets and 79% of the handle. Los Angeles has gone over the point total in four of its last five games, the the Jazz have done the same in each of the past three. Over their last 10 games, the Lakers also have the sixth-best offensive rating in basketball, dropping an impressive 120.9 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, last season, Dončić’s Mavericks finished eighth in offensive rating, and, besides his rookie season, Dallas never had a below-average offense with him on the roster. Utah has the league’s worst defensive rating this season, so it’s fair to expect fireworks tonight.
Most Bet Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Monday’s game:
- Luka Doncic 30+ Points (+120)
- Luka Doncic Triple-Double (+600)
- Luka Doncic Double-Double (+110)
- Luka Doncic 25+ Points (-210)
- Luka Doncic 1st Points Scorer (+425)
Given the hype surrounding Dončić’s team debut, it’s no surprise that the five most popular player prop bets for Monday’s game — and, indeed, the four most popular player prop bets for any of the NBA games on tonight’s slate — pertain to him. He seems likely to at least score 25 points, given that he’s done so in all but seven of his games so far this season, but 30 would be a tougher task, given that he’s done that only 10 times in his 22 games. He also might be on a minutes restriction, although Los Angeles head coach JJ Redick hasn’t announced his plans for Dončić’s usage yet.
The public is also backing Dončić to make a well-rounded impact, and given that he’s one of just three players in NBA history — along with James and Oscar Robertson — to average at least 27 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists per game for his career — both his double-double and triple-double props are solid bets. This season, he has recorded a double-double in nearly half (10 of 22) of his starts, plus three triple-doubles. Dončić led the league in triple doubles in his second season and has recorded 10 or more triple-doubles every season of his career besides his rookie season and 2024-25. Overall, he ranks seventh with 80 career triple-doubles, the fourth-most among active players.
My favorite bet, though, is that he’ll score the game’s first points; at +425 odds, it’s certainly a long-shot worth considering. In a game with so much attention — Dončić will certainly receive a lengthy standing ovation upon being introduced as a member of the starting lineup — Redick and James might be incentivized to feed their new star. After all, the NBA is fundamentally about entertainment, and this is perhaps the most-hyped Lakers game since James’ debut with the team in 2018. Even if James didn’t score the first points in that game, I’m certain Dončić will be firing away early. This season, Dončić has recorded a 34.3% usage rate in the first quarter, the second-highest among 322 players who have played at least 20 games.
How the Public is Betting Luka Dončić Player Prop Bets
Unsurprisingly, the public is betting expecting huge things from Dončić tonight.
- Luka Dončić O28.5 Points: 78% Handle, 80% Bets
- Luka Dončić O7.5 Assists: 98% Handle, 91% Bets
- Luka Dončić O7.5 Rebounds: 35% Handle, 66% Bets
- Luka Dončić O3.5 Three-Pointers Made: 68% Handle, 83% Bets
In particular, bettors are especially bullish about his partnership with James, with more than 90% of both bets and handle coming in on him to dish out at least eight assists, something he has done in exactly half his games this season. Big-money bettors are less high on his rebounding, though; this season, the Jazz have allowed the sixth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing players.
