The Chiefs take on the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Sunday night. This is a breakdown of the public betting splits and the most popular player prop bets for the big game.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Eagles with an over/under set at 48.5.
Betting Splits
The Chiefs and Eagles have been two of the best teams in the NFL all season, so the public is divided on who to back. The splits for both the Moneyline and handle are incredibly close. On the Moneyline, the Eagles currently have 55% of the bets and 53% of the handle. The public is slightly leaning towards Philadelphia to win the game but there are a few bigger bets on the Chiefs since their handle percentage is larger than their bet percentage. On the spread, it’s the Chiefs that have a small edge from the public. 54% of bets are on the Chiefs at -1.5 and 46% are on the Eagles at +1.5. However, there is a lean towards the Eagles from bigger bettors. Despite getting 46% of the spread bets, the Eagles are getting 51% of the handle. That would indicate that some bigger bettors are leaning towards the Eagles. However, between the spread and the Moneyline, it is a really even split between the public and bigger bettors alike.
Unlike the spread and Moneyline, the total is very lopsided to one side. 76% of bets are on the over at 48.5, with just 24% of bets to the under. It’s not uncommon for the public to be heavily on the over, especially in a big game like the Super Bowl. Most bettors want to root for points to be scored in the Super Bowl so the splits usually lean heavily in this direction. Bigger bettors often jump on the value and try to go against the public by taking the under. However, for Super Bowl LIX, even bigger bettors are leaning towards the over. 81% of the handle is on the over compared to 76% of the bets. So, there are bigger bets that have come in on the over as well.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the six most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for Super Bowl LIX:
- Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown (-195)
- Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-120)
- Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns (+275)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+135)
- Saquon Barkley First TD Scorer (+425)
- Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+165)
It’s no surprise that Saquon Barkley is the most popular player in the prop market. He is the NFL Offensive Player of the Year and one of the most electric players in the NFL. He had 15 touchdowns in the regular season and an incredible five combined touchdowns between the Divisional Round and the NFC Championship Game. Barkley is also the most bet-on player to score 2+ touchdowns and to score the first touchdown of the game, making it three Barkley props in the top six most popular player prop bets for the Super Bowl. Barkley had 2+ touchdowns in each of his past two games and also scored the first touchdown of the NFC Championship Game.
Jalen Hurts is the second most bet-on player to score a touchdown. This needs to be a rushing or receiving touchdown, not a passing touchdown. Hurts led all quarterbacks with 14 rushing touchdown in the regular season. He has kept the momentum going in the postseason with four rushing touchdowns in three playoff games. Hurts scored three rushing touchdowns in Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs, so history is on his side in this matchup. Hurts can scramble for a touchdown, break a long designed run like he did against the Rams, or score on the tush-push.
There are two Chiefs players that round out the most popular player prop bets. Travis Kelce to score a touchdown is the fourth-most popular bet for the big game. Kelce only scored three touchdowns in the regular season, the lowest mark of his career. However, he did score against the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Bettors backing Kelce is based more on Kelce’s postseason pedigree than what he has actually done, with 20 touchdowns in 24 career playoff games. If you eliminate the first four seasons of his career, Kelce has 18 touchdowns in his last 18 playoff games.
On the other side of the coin from the experienced Kelce is rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Worthy is playing in his first ever Super Bowl but bettors are trusting him to find the end zone. Worthy led the Chiefs in total touchdowns in the regular season with nine. Worthy also scored in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills. The speedster is so dangerous because he can score on the ground or through the air. He had three regular season touchdowns come on rushes, and the Chiefs love to come up with unique gadget plays in the Super Bowl, leading to players like Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore scoring in past appearances. Worthy should get a lot of touches in the red zone in this game.
