The Chiefs take on the Eagles in Super Bowl 59 and Patrick Mahomes is looking to win his fourth championship ring. This is a breakdown of whether Mahomes will run for a touchdown in this game.
Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Scorer Bets
Here are Patrick Mahomes’ current touchdown scorer odds on DraftKings Sportsbook: Mahomes is +310 to score a touchdown, +2500 to score 2+ touchdowns, and +1800 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Patrick Mahomes is very athletic but isn’t a “running quarterback” in the same sense that Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen are. During the regular season, Mahomes carefully picks his spots to run and rarely takes quarterback sneaks. Mahomes is very careful about getting hit as rarely as possible and will always try to make a play downfield rather than take off running. However, in the postseason, he gets much more aggressive with his legs. It’s not uncommon for quarterbacks to run more in the postseason. Players are much more willing to take hits when everything is on the line, and they are more afraid to make a risky throw that could lead to a turnover, so they will instead tuck it and run if things are covered downfield. Mahomes is one of those quarterbacks.
During the 2024-25 regular season, Patrick Mahomes only had two rushing touchdowns. He matched that 16-game total with two rushing touchdowns in just the AFC Championship Game. During the regular season, Mahomes averaged 3.6 rushing attempts per game for 19.2 rushing yards per game. In the two postseason games he has played, Mahomes averaged 9.0 rushing attempts per game for 28.5 rushing yards per game. That is 2.5x as many carries per game in the postseason as in the regular season, showing a significantly higher willingness to run. These numbers line up with the rest of Mahomes’ career as well. His career regular-season rushing average is 20.0 rushing yards per game on 3.9 carries. His career postseason rushing average is 29.1 rushing yards per game on 5.4 carries. When it comes specifically to rushing touchdowns, Mahomes rushes for a touchdown once every 2.9 games in the postseason. In the regular season, he rushes for a touchdown once every 8 games.
Specifically for this game, Mahomes’ chances to run for a touchdown are a bit higher based on personnel. The Eagles have an elite defense. That might indicate that Mahomes is less likely to run for a touchdown, but often in these situations, an elite secondary leads to more quarterback runs. The Eagles have been excellent at defending the pass, so Mahomes might be forced to tuck it and run more often if nobody is open downfield. The Eagles also have a great pass rush, which will cause Mahomes to flush out of the pocket more often than he normally does. The Eagles’ defense might also cause Andy Reid to draw up some creative plays to try to beat them, which could include some quarterback runs. Mahomes is rushing for a touchdown once every 2.9 postseason games in his career and the probability gets a little higher based on the defensive matchup, therefore there is solid value on Mahomes to score a touchdown at odds of +310 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
