Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a 50% chance to play today on the road versus Atlanta. Giannis was a shocking late scratch the last time Milwaukee played and his teammates, Damian Lillard and Bobby Portis in particular, went off in his absence.
Giannis projects to be one of the highest owned players on DraftKings tournaments today with a big 124 implied points for Milwaukee in a game with a 242.5-point total that’s the highest on tonight’s slate. Giannis averages 36.3% usage, an 18.7% rebound rate and a 33.2% assist rate en route to 1.63 DraftKings Points Per Minute this year. If he were, out in addition to the recently traded Khris Middleton, there’d be a major statistical hole to fill in a pace-up matchup versus Atlanta (especially if the newly acquired Kyle Kuzma were also to sit today).
Assuming Giannis plays tonight, he projects for a gaudy 31.2 points, 11.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists. He’d be one of the most popular plays tonight in DraftKings tournaments — though Unabated’s bet simulation tools would project 2.7% Expected Value on under 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists for Giannis on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If Giannis is out, here’s how some of his key remaining teammates with available betting markets would project according to Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections:
- Damian Lillard projects for 28.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists (24.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.8 assists if Giannis is in)
- Brook Lopez projects for 14.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists (11.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists if Giannis is in)
- Andre Jackson projects for 5.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists (3.6 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists if Giannis is in)
There would also be a huge impact on the Expected Value for Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez’s overs if Giannis is out. Lillard projects for 18.9% EV on over 38.5 PRAs and Brook Lopez projects for 20.4% EV on over 19.5 PRAs in the case that Giannis misses a game; these prop bets would be must plays worth immediately reacting to if Giannis gets ruled out.
Additionally, the aforementioned Bobby Portis would see a massive increase in opportunity if Giannis is unavailable. Portis averages 27.9% usage, a 20.5% rebound rate and a 15.8% assist rate when Giannis and Middleton are off the court, good for 1.34 DraftKings Points Per Minute. On a slate with a lot of moving pieces thanks to NBA trade deadline fallout, Giannis’ status tonight is one of the keys to watch out for.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
