It’s a slim college hoops card on Friday night, but we’ve got a monster game in the Big East, as Saint John’s travels to Storrs to face Connecticut. Let’s breakdown a college basketball pick on the game.
St. John’s at UCONN (8:00pm ET)
The spot sets up very nicely for the Huskies here, so I put this play out on Thursday evening, expecting it to move overnight. It did just that, but I still think it’s worth laying the points with UConn — if you want an alternate angle, playing the first half and/or double result feels like another way to play the game.
Both of these teams are off impressive victories over a highly ranked Marquette team, but the Huskies have had more time off to prepare, and have the advantage of hosting this one on campus. UConn went to Wisconsin and knocked off the Golden Eagles as a sizable underdog on Saturday night, thanks to a hot start to the game. Liam McNeely, one of the top freshman talents in the nation, was close to returning on Saturday, but wound up sidelined again. The Frosh is expected back in uniform on Friday night, giving the Huskies a nice boost in this game.
Meanwhile, St. John’s just played in arguably the biggest home game its hosted at Madison Square Garden in over a decade. Despite some brutal shooting from the free throw line and beyond the arc, the Red Storm were too physical for Marquette, and clawed out a win. The victory improved SJU to 15-0 at home, but going into a tough road atmosphere in the underdog role is a much different situation. Rick Pitino and company surely spent a lot of time preparing for Tuesday’s win over Marquette, and now have to turn around and get ready for another elite opponent. Big advantage for Dan Hurley and company here, who haven’t played a game this week.
Historically, St. John’s has done well against UConn compared to expectations. The Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last nine against the Huskies, but generally priced as a steep underdog. UConn is 6-1 straight up the last seven times these teams have met, regardless of home court. The Huskies are 10-1 at home this season, and this should be the best home crowd they see. The game is on campus, a late 8pm ET Friday night tip, and potentially the excitement of the return of a star player. It all sets up nicely.
As good as St. John’s has been, it has also been favored in 21 of 23 games this season. On the two occasions the Red Storm were not favored, they lost by a single point on each occasion — as a +2.5-point underdog on a neutral to Baylor, and in a pick’em at Creighton. The Red Storm were able to survive against Marquette due to physicality and offensive rebounding. UConn will be able to hold its own in those categories, making things tougher on St. John’s in this one. I think SJU falls just short priced as a dog once again, this time in the toughest game its had so far this season.
College Basketball Pick: UCONN ML (-125) 2-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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