The Chiefs are small favorites over the Eagles at DraftKings Sportsbook for Super Bowl 59. This is a breakdown of my pick to win the big game.
Super Bowl 59 SU Pick
Super Bowl LIX is a rematch of a great Super Bowl between these two teams just a couple of seasons ago. It was the Chiefs’ first Super Bowl victory of the potential three-peat that they are now chasing in this game. However, the Eagles led that tilt by ten points at halftime and six points at the end of the third quarter. The Chiefs needed a game-winning field goal as time expired to knock off the Eagles.
These teams have a much different look this time around. The head coaches and quarterbacks are the same, but many other key pieces have changed. Saquon Barkley is now the star of the Eagles’ offense and is a player who can impact the game with one touch of the football. On the Chiefs’ side, Xavier Worthy has been a major difference-maker and Kareem Hunt has been their top running back in the postseason over Isiah Pacheco.
Top to bottom, the Eagles have the better football team. The Eagles finished the regular season fifth in the NFL in DVOA, while the Chiefs finished eighth. The Eagles finished sixth in offensive EPA/play, while the Chiefs finished ninth. The Eagles finished third in defensive EPA/play, while the Chiefs finished 15th. The Eagles have the better offensive line, the better running backs, the better wide receivers and the better defense. However, the Chiefs have three key edges at three of the most important spots, and that is why they always find a way to win. They have the edge at quarterback, at kicker and the better coaching staff. The reason that the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites is mainly because they have Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo.
The story of the Chiefs’ season has been winning close games. From Week 1, where Isaiah Likely’s toe was just barely out of bounds, causing the Ravens to lose that game; to the AFC Championship Game, where Dalton Kincaid saw the ball go through his hands on a key fourth down, the Chiefs found ways to win by the skin of their teeth. That is not because of some “conspiracy” but because they have the best quarterback and the best head coach in the NFL. Mahomes might not put up the numbers that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen do, but there is no doubt about which quarterback you would pick if you needed one touchdown drive at the end of a game. When playing against a team that makes few mistakes and always capitalizes on their opponent’s mistakes, you can’t afford to make errors.
The Chiefs have not scored the first touchdown in any of their past three Super Bowl appearances. That trend could likely continue and see the Eagles jump out to an early lead that they carry to halftime. The Bills are the only team that beat the Chiefs this season, other than the Week 18 game where they rested their starts. In the Bills’ victory, Buffalo led by two points and possessed the ball with under five minutes left in the game. It had a chance to kick a field goal to go up five points, but instead went for it on fourth down and Josh Allen ran it in for a touchdown, putting the team up two scores with two minutes to go. The Eagles might need to get themselves into the same position if they want to win this game. If they can jump out to an early lead and maintain that lead, they might need to make an aggressive choice to go for a key fourth down to keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs get the ball with five minutes or fewer to go with a chance to win the game, it’s hard to imagine a world where they don’t succeed.
I am picking the Eagles to win Super Bowl 59. Picking against Patrick Mahomes is just about the dumbest thing you can do in sports, but the Eagles flat-out have the better football team. They should be able to protect Jalen Hurts and allow him to make smart decisions as a passer. Saquon Barkley is also ready to make a game-changing play at a moment’s notice. Most importantly, the Eagles have a fantastic defense. They should be able to slow down the Chiefs and make it hard for them to move the ball. If they can jump out to an early lead, they have the best running back in football to help control the clock from there. Nick Sirianni, despite his faults, has proven that he will go for key fourth downs that some coaches do not. Those decisions could be the difference in putting away the Chiefs and getting the Eagles back to the mountaintop. My confidence level will never be high picking against Patrick Mahomes, but I am confident that I am picking the better football team to win as small underdogs.
