One of the more enticing Super Bowl LIX Special prop bets offered on DraftKings Sportsbook, as far as the passing/quarterback categories goes, is wagering on whether or not Patrick Mahomes and/or Jalen Hurts will throw an interception on Sunday. A single turnover, especially through the air, can be the deciding factor in a Super Bowl. And, of course, like when the Patriots played the Eagles in the 2019 Super Bowl, there’s always the chance for a last-minute hail mary that results in a game-sealing pick. Having said that, both these quarterbacks average fewer than one interception per game, so it’s one of the riskier betting markets to hit for your Super Bowl props.
As you can see from the image below, the market reflects the stats. DraftKings currently has both Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes at plus-money to throw a pick in the Bowl:
And while both are right around the same price (+113 for Hurts, +114 for Mahomes), the Eagles’ secondary is the talk of the town these days, and the Philadelphia offense is more ground-focused than the Kansas City Chiefs can afford to be. Of the two quarterbacks here, I like Mahomes’ value at this price the best, and think there’s a solid lean.
Below, I’ll analyze which way I think we should bet: will Mahomes have to overcome an interception in his quest to lead Kansas City to a three-peat?
Best interception prop bet for Super Bowl 2025
Analysis
Let’s start here: across four Super Bowl appearances in which the Chiefs are 3-1, Mahomes has thrown five interceptions. That’s likely because he’s played from behind in each of his four appearances. Indeed, all of Mahomes’s Lombardi trophies are his by virtue of comebacks he’s engineered.
One of the biggest knocks during Mahomes’ first seven weeks of the 2024-25 season, during which he threw seven interceptions, was this surprising penchant for turnovers through the air. Granted, the Chiefs offense had to rally around early injuries to Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, and Hollywood Brown. Mahomes had to do too much, was showing a penchant for hero ball, and leaving the Chiefs’ defense and special teams units to win him games.
I think we can forgive an unpolished stretch from the most accomplished quarterback in the history of the game at his age. But we also need to acknowledge that history has a great chance to repeat itself, here. Especially given the Eagles’ elite advanced metrics when it comes to pass defense.
Philly’s elite secondary
Even though the Eagles rush four defenders 77.8% of the time (third in the NFL), they finished fifth in the league in time to quarterback pressure (TTP), at 2.59 seconds. The Eagles were eighth in the NFL in quarterback-pressure-to-sack-conversion-rate at 21.2%.
Which means this is a pass rush that is going to be able to force Mahomes to try to do too much at least eight-to-ten times in the Super Bowl. And, to that end, the Eagles finished second in the league in completion percentage over expectation allowed (CPOE) with -4.4%. Read: when quarterbacks have to save the day, the Eagles are elite at forcing incompletions on those plays.
With the good hands of Darius Slay, Reed Blankenship, Cooper Dejean, and Quinyon Mitchell all hawking around back there behind Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter, & co., I like my chances that Mahomes let’s one fall into Philadelphia’s hands.
Best bet: Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception against the Eagles (+113)
Tail Patty to throw a duck to the Birds on Super Bowl Sunday with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Check out my other Super Bowl betting content on my handle @dansby_edits.
