As you’d expect, DraftKings Sportsbook has a plethora of props available for the Super Bowl. One of those props is listed under the “Novelty Props” called Jersey Special. These props coincide with the player’s jersey number to create this prop. For DeVonta Smith, we have “DeVonta Smith to have exactly six receptions.” The price on this prop is currently listed at +475, giving it an implied probability of 17.3%. Is there a legitimate chance that Smith can land on six receptions against the Chiefs? Let’s discuss.
Check out all our bets, DFS advice, and more for the Super Bowl on DraftKings Network
DeVonta Smith to Have Exactly 6 Receptions +475
Smith landed on six receptions three times during the 2024 season. Those came in Weeks 8 against the Bengals, 16 against the Commanders, and 17 against the Cowboys. So while it certainly is in the realm of possibilities, I’m not banking on this outcome to happen.
On the season, Smith averaged 6.3 targets per game, a very healthy number for a WR2. However, Smith saw a huge uptick in games where A.J. Brown was absent. If you remember, Brown was between Weeks 2-5. Smith, who also missed some time over that span, saw 20 total targets in two games against the Falcons and Saints without Brown. Those targets accounted for nearly 20% of his season total. Smith wouldn’t see double-digit targets again until Week 15, when he drew 12 against the Steelers. With Brown and Dallas Goedert active, Smith simply doesn’t receive that type of volume.
Smith lined up in the slot more than any other time in his career. Doing so over 46% of the time, it’s become the primary spot for him. This is a good spot for Smith, as the Chiefs have allowed the second-most receiving yards and the third-highest reception rate. However, Jalen Hurts didn’t utilize his slot receivers at a high rate. He only made 90 pass attempts, which ranks 27th amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. With all of his receivers healthy, this doesn’t seem like a spot to make this bet.
