As the most shocking trade deadline in NBA history has passed — Luka Dončić is a Laker, Jimmy Butler is a Warrior, Brandon Ingram is a Raptor, and Khris Middleton is a Wizard — the attention turns back to the court for a six-game slate.
Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook, with one bet from each of the first five games (sorry, Clippers and Pacers fans).
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
- Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at LA Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Dallas Mavericks +10 (-108)
All the discourse about Dallas trading Dončić to the Lakers has overshadowed the fact that Anthony Davis is a really good basketball player. He’s not quite Dončić’s caliber and he’s six years older, so Nico Harrison definitely could’ve gotten a better package for Dončić, but Davis will help the Mavericks win games. It might take some time for the chemistry to gel, but a starting lineup of Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Davis, and Daniel Gafford is still a difficult out in the playoffs. As long as Davis plays tonight — he’s questionable with an abdominal strain — I like Dallas’ chances of covering the spread. The Mavericks were competitive against the Philadelphia 76ers, who had Joel Embiid, on Tuesday, even without Davis or Washington, who recently had his second child.
Boston seems to have gotten past its recent struggles, as it has now won four straight games, most recently earning an impressive victory over the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, who shot just 39.6% from the field in the loss. Even still, the games have been close — a two-point win over the hapless New Orleans Pelicans, an eight-point win over the 76ers without Embiid, and the seven-point result against Cleveland. Obviously, the Cavaliers are a better team than Dallas is, even with Davis, but I’d be surprised if the Celtics win comfortably. Boston is just 20-30-1 against the spread this season, the fifth-worst record in the NBA.
Rudy Gobert O1.5 Blocks (-135)
The Stifle Tower has been overshadowed this season by his French counterpart in San Antonio, who he pipped to the Defensive Player of the Year award last year. He’s down to 1.6 blocks per game and a 4.4% block rate — the latter of which is the second-lowest of his career — and while the Timberwolves’ defense has still been elite, there have been plenty of growing pains in Minnesota’s season as it has struggled to figure out Julius Randle’s fit alongside Gobert. But he has put together three very solid games since Randle was sidelined with an adductor strain, putting up 15.0 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game over that span, and he’s now rejected two or more shots in seven of his last eight games.
Houston also gets blocked more frequently than every team except the Utah Jazz. Part of it may be their schedule — their division contains the Spurs (first in blocks), Memphis Grizzlies (third), Mavericks (fourth), and Pelicans (eighth) — but part of it is a lack of size. Besides six-foot-11 Alperen Şengün and backup center Steven Adams, also six-foot-11, the tallest player in the Rockets’ rotation is six-foot-eight Tari Eason. Houston is still an excellent rebounding team — thanks mostly to Şengün — but Jalen Green and Şengün are third and fifth, respectively, in total field goal attempts that have been blocked.
Nikola Jokic Triple-Double (+105)
Last night, the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 50 points while sitting for much of the fourth quarter against the Phoenix Suns, pushing him even further into the lead against Jokić in the MVP race, but that shouldn’t take anything away from the brilliant season the Serbian center has enjoyed. Jokić is averaging a triple-double for the first time in his career and leading the league in the category, averaging 29.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. He’s also shooting threes at the highest frequency of his career and hitting them at a ridiculous 46.1% clip. He’s had six triple-doubles in his last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Magic have been a disaster lately, even though they picked up a win over the Sacramento Kings last night. They’re mostly healthy by now, but Paolo Banchero has yet to find his footing. Even with the win yesterday, they’re 2-8 in their last 10 games, although they’ve still been okay defensively, giving up the 12th-fewest points, 12th-fewest rebounds, and 11th-fewest assists across that span. Part of it has to do with the fact that they’ve played at the league’s second-slowest pace over that span; Denver plays at the 11th-fastest pace, so it should speed up the game enough for Jokić to record his 24th triple-double of the season.
Los Angeles Lakers -11.5 Alternate Spread (+170)
Stephen Curry and LeBron James both usually show up for nationally-televised clashes between the Warriors and Lakers, so maybe this one will be close. But Golden State will be without Andrew Wiggins and Dennis Schröder — who they traded for Butler — as well as Butler, who won’t be suiting up until Saturday at the earliest. They also blew a late 10-point lead last night against the Utah Jazz, who climbed out of the West’s cellar with a shocking 132-129 win. In his last 10 games, Curry has shot just 38.6% from the field and 30.9% from three-point range, showing more signs of age than James, who is more than three years his senior. Over that span, the Warriors are 5-5, although they have a negative-2.9 net rating.
Dončić won’t be available to make his debut in Los Angeles, as he’ll likely suit up on Saturday instead, and neither will center Mark Williams, whose trade from the Charlotte Hornets hasn’t been processed yet. But the Lakers have the league’s third-best net rating over their last 10 games and didn’t give up anyone of immediate value to pick up Dončić and Williams, since Davis was out anyway. Los Angeles looked extremely convincing in throttling its cross-town rivals on Tuesday, 122-97, and the Clippers are a significantly better team than Golden State is. Six of the Lakers’ last seven wins have come by double digits, including a 10-point victory over the Warriors on January 25.
Portland Trail Blazers Moneyline (-118)
What shouldn’t be a surprise is that the Oklahoma City Thunder have the NBA’s best net rating over the last 10 games, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions. What is surprising is that next on that list are the Trail Blazers, with a plus-12.7. They haven’t made any major roster moves, but their roster has gotten healthier, and Scoot Henderson has finally shown some signs of improvement. Meanwhile, Sacramento has cooled off after its hot start to the Doug Christie era, sporting a negative-5.0 net rating over its last 10 games.
Portland has both the rest advantage and the form advantage, since the Kings played last night at the Golden 1 Center, losing to Orlando. That game saw new acquisition Zach LaVine make his debut, scoring 13 points and adding three assists on four-for-13 shooting from the field. It’s likely that LaVine will play better tonight against the Trail Blazers, but he is a downgrade from De’Aaron Fox from both a fit and talent perspective. Sacramento is in an interesting position; with LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis, it is too talented to tank, but it also doesn’t have enough to win a playoff series.
