Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Nuggets stars Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon to each have a 50% chance to play. With a back-to-back for the Nuggets tonight in a tough matchup versus Orlando, both players are risks to sit for “injury management” reasons according to the injury report.
If both players are out alongside the currently injured Russell Westbrook, there are major ramifications for Denver. Given that Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic went for over 68 DraftKings Points yesterday with both Gordon and Murray in, it speaks to how much upside there is for Denver despite a lower-paced matchup versus the defensively sound Magic.
If Gordon and Murray both play, Gordon projects for 12.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists, while Murray projects for 19.0 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists in Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections. Unabated also would see 4.7% Expected Value on the under for Aaron Gordon’s 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook and a very tasty 7.1% EV on under 30.5 PRAs for Jamal Murray, if they do find themselves active.
If Gordon or Murray sits, here’s how the rest of the key Nuggets project according to Unabated NBA:
- Nikola Jokic projects for 27.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 10.5 assists if Gordon sits and Murray plays. He projects for 28.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 11.0 assists if Murray sits and Gordon plays.
- Michael Porter Jr. projects for 17.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists if Gordon sits and Murray plays. He projects for 20.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists if Murray sits and Gordon plays.
- Christian Braun projects for 13.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists if Gordon sits and Murray plays. He projects for 14.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists if Murray sits and Gordon plays.
- Jamal Murray projects for 19.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists if Gordon sits.
- Aaron Gordon projects for 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists if Murray sits.
If both guys are out, things start to get nutty for the remaining Nuggets:
- Nikola Jokic projects for 29.8 points, 11.6 rebounds and 11.9 assists
- Michael Porter Jr. projects for 19.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists
- Christian Braun projects for 15.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists
In addition to being hugely important NBA DFS tournament plays, there’d also be a huge 10% Expected Value on Nikola Jokic’s over 50.5 PRAs prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook and an even bigger 19.8% EV on Michael Porter Jr’s over 26.5 PRAs bet.
Even though this NBA trade deadline and the general injury prone pre-NBA All Star break landscape have made a lot of exhausting Q tag situations lately, they’re some of the most important situations to prepare for to extract some edge in DFS and prop bets. Strap in for this to potentially go late with Magic-Nuggets tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET and good luck!
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
