Buried within all of the other Super Bowl LIX Specials on DraftKings Sportsbook is, I think, one of the better prop bet plays for the big game on Sunday. If you head to the SB LIX SPECIALS tab within the game, and the GAME SPECIALS subtab in that category. At -110 odds, you can place a bet on Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes to each record 15-or-more passing yards in each quarter of the Super Bowl.
See the below image for reference.
It is not whatsoever the flashiest bet, nor is it the juiciest. And it’s buried indeed among the hundreds of other Super Bowl Specials on DraftKings. However, it might just be the closest thing to a meatball the book’s offering us—at almost even money at that!—for the big game this weekend.
Why Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes will each clear 15+ passing yards each quarter
I hate to offer superficial analysis, but I genuinely hesitate to believe that, no matter the game-script, these two quarterbacks will need to generate closer to 30-50 yards per quarter—not on average, but actually paced out accordingly throughout regulation time—in order to lead their teams to victory.
Their average passing numbers per game shake out to blow 15+ yards per quarter out of the water, and I don’t expect either team to go away from what’s worked for them. Part of that has been allowing their playmakers to get the ball in space. Below is a screengrab from NFL Next Gen Stats, where I curated a list of receiving stats for both Kansas City and Philadelphia skillplayers. It’s sorted from most yards after the catch (YAC) to fewest.
Notice how Brown, Perine, Smith, Goedert, and Barkley all have a slight green coloration to their RecYOE; this indicates that their receiving yards over expectation is above-league-average. And, as far as Worthy and Kelce go, their collective paltry and below-league-average RecYOE has regressed to the mean during the playoffs, when both Kelce and Worthy have strung together impressive performances.
All of this speaks to two offenses who, as a unit, can elevate Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts over 15+ yards per quarter on Sunday.
Not to mention, this game has a decent chance of being around as high-scoring as the 38-35 barn-burner in Super Bowl LVII. The public is unabashedly hammering the over in this game, both in terms of bet and handle percentage on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best bet: Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes to Each Record 15+ Passing Yards Each Quarter (-110)
Check out my other Super Bowl betting content on my handle @dansby_edits!
