This is not the same Eagles defensive line that had tallied 70 sacks leading into the Super Bowl two years ago. However, there are plenty of notable names the Chiefs must be conscious of as they attempt to protect Patrick Mahomes.
Josh Sweat will set right near the top of this after leading the Eagles in sacks during the regular season with 8.0 on the season. He has yet to produce a sack in this playoff run but with the brightest lights and largest stakes on him, the Super Bowl is a perfect chance to change this. This applies from both a team and individual standpoint. In addition to the clear goal of winning the Super Bowl, Sweat is set to become a free agent this offseason and recently changed representation to maximize his potential contract. A sack against Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl is an excellent way to ensure he maximizes his upcoming deal and he has just the opportunity to do this.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, Josh Sweat’s over/under is set at 0.25 with the under favored at -191 odds. You also can bet on him to record 1+ full sacks at +153 odds which I believe are worth taking a chance on.
You can bet on this on DraftKings Sportsbook and also can tail me in betting this in the DK Network betting group here.
Why Josh Sweat will sack Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl:
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the season ranked second in points allowed and having conceded the fewest yards in the NFL. They also ranked second in rushing touchdowns allowed, sixth in passing touchdown conceded, and 14th in sacks tallied as a team. Josh Sweat was responsible for nearly 20% of these quarterback takedowns- logging 8.0 of the team’s 41.0 on the season.
This pass rush will be especially crucial in this matchup as giving Patrick Mahomes extra time in the pocket is a recipe for disaster from the Eagles’ perspective. So far in the postseason, the Eagles tallied two sacks against the Packers, five sacks against the Rams, and three sacks against the Commanders. Surprisingly, Sweat has not been involved in any of these postseason sacks to this point.
Patrick Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times during the regular season and has been taken down five times across the opening two playoff games.
Kansas City’s offensive line is ranked fifth by Pro Football Focus, but grades better with the run and has slipped as the season has progressed. They rank 30th in the NFL over the final four weeks of the regular season and have not received a PFF grade above a C since Week 12 against the Carolina Panthers. Their weakness comes at the tackle positions with this set to be whom Sweat will line up against.
Jawaan Taylor has been the biggest concern on the edge as he finished the season ranked 62nd out of 81 qualified tackles on PFF. Taylor allowed a team-high 41 pressures this season and seven sacks during the regular season. There are only seven tackles in the NFL that have given up more pressures than Taylor on the year. While Nolan Smith will likely be primarily matched up with Taylor expect Sweat to be moved around and get his chances as well.
Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio plays a more conservative style of defense that does not involve much blitzing outside of the front four. Instead, he relies on the pass-rushers to win their individual battles. Expect this to remain the game plan with some favorable advantages for Philadelphia.
Philadelphia was unable to produce a sack on Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl two years ago and surely will be looking to change this. While they do not have as impressive of statistics, the Eagles’ defensive line is deeper and there are greater concerns with this Chiefs offensive line. Expect Philadelphia to rotate its list of names and to add to the career-high rate that Patrick Mahomes has been sacked this year.
Getting +150 odds for the Eagles’ leading sack artist to secure over 0.25 quarterback takedowns is solid value, and I am riding with Josh Sweat to get the job done as he potentially puts a bow on his Eagles’ career.
