Entering the season, it looked like tonight’s nationally televised battle between the Phoenix Suns and the Oklahoma City Thunder would see Kevin Durant take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — old guard vs. new guard — but now, it’s not so clear. Durant is in trade rumors once again, with a Golden State Warriors reunion the most intriguing possibility, and he has been downgraded to doubtful with a left ankle injury.
There may be no such thing as an untouchable player — Nico Harrison proved as much with Luka Dončić on Saturday — but I’m not sure that Sam Presti would give up Gilgeous-Alexander even if the San Antonio Spurs offered Victor Wembanyama and five first-round picks. That’s how incredible the MVP favorite has been this season, averaging a league-leading 32.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are 13-point favorites and the total is set for 229. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Gilgeous-Alexander.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 12+ First-Quarter Points (+125)
Playing a reeling Suns team likely without Durant and distracted by trade rumors surrounding Durant, Bradley Beal, and Miami Heat small forward Jimmy Butler, who Phoenix has long coveted, I’d be surprised if Oklahoma City isn’t winning by such a big margin that Gilgeous-Alexander sits during the fourth quarter. Thankfully, Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t need four quarters to make a huge impact; he plays the entire first quarter and averages nearly 10 points per game in the opening frame alone. He shoots 55.3% from the field in the opening frame, the 17th-best effiency among 104 players to play at least eight first-quarter minutes per game. In his last nine games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged an incredible 14.3 first-quarter points.
The Suns’ defense has actually improved somewhat in the last nine games; since former Charlotte Hornets big Nick Richards made his team debut, Phoenix has allowed just 113.4 points per 100 possessions, the 11th-stingiest rate in the league. Still, Suns point guard Tyus Jones has had the worst defensive season of his career, and Gilgeous-Alexander should have no trouble exploiting him.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O1.5 Steals (-130)
After an eight-game stretch in which Gilgeous-Alexander recorded at least two steals in every game, tied for the second-longest streak this season, he has inexplicably recorded two steals or more only once in his last five games, including three zero-steal performances, which he’s done only eight times this season. The fact that he played 30 or fewer minutes in each of his past two games in Thunder blowouts hasn’t helped. Obviously, every NBA game is an independent event, but Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a career-high 2.8 steals per 100 possessions; he’s simply due.
Phoenix’s recent improvement hasn’t extended to the offensive side of the ball, as the Suns still struggle with turnovers. Over the last nine games, Phoenix is still allowing 8.8 steals per game, tied for the seventh-most in basketball. It’s also significantly worse than its season-long figure, which is 8.3 steals per game, only the 14th-worst in the league. Suns shooting guard Devin Booker — likely to be Gilgeous-Alexander’s primary assignment — has recorded two or more turnovers in nine of his last 11 games, including a ghastly nine-turnover performance on January 29 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
