Thursday’s 3:00 p.m. ET NBA trade deadline continues to loom as teams around the league attempt to upgrade their respective rosters for the playoff push. This is a tough time of year with a phantom injury or direct “trade pending” popping up on injury reports as the day progresses. Trade rumors may steal the headlines, but the action will continue on the court for all the remaining players, with 11 games taking place across the night.
Most notably, the Detroit Pistons will host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:00 p.m. ET. A half-hour later, the Miami Heat will face the Philadelphia 76ers with Jimmy Butler being one of the biggest names in question at the deadline. The Denver Nuggets will host the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors will play the Utah Jazz. Phoenix will continue to evaluate the future of Kevin Durant as it takes on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The final matchup on the slate will be between the Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic.
Keep an eye on the injury reports and roster movement throughout the day, but here are my favorite prop bets for the Feb. 5 slate of games.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124)
Jimmy Butler remains suspended and awaiting his trade fate while Josh Richardson is set to miss tonight’s game with a heel injury. Duncan Robinson seems to be on the safer side of the trade conversations and may see some extended minutes as a result. The 30-year-old is averaging 11.1 points, 2.7 assists and 2.4 rebounds this season across his 24.2 minutes per game. Robinson is also shooting 38.1% from beyond the three-point arc this season while attempting 6.7 perimeter shots per game.
This will be a matchup that Robinson should benefit from as the Heat take on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The Sixers rank 24th in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed this season and are 17th in opponent three-pointers made. Nick Nurse has done his best to implement his switch-heavy scheme but frequent injury issues and limited personnel have led to the unit becoming disconnected and allowing open three-point looks far too often.
Robinson has played 29.2 minutes per game across his past five games and is in the 91st percentile in the league for his three-point attempt rate. Philadelphia has allowed 18.4 points per game to opposing starting shooting guards over the past 24 games, the sixth-worst rate in the league. Robinson shot 2-for-10 from beyond the three-point arc in the first matchup with the Sixers. While he was unable to connect with his third long-range shot, this level of volume is still encouraging. Robinson has made over 2.5 three-pointers in 20 of the 46 games he has played, including six of his past eight games. Count on Robinson to add to this again tonight and capitalize on the +124 odds.
Naz Reid Over 5.5 Rebounds (-145)
The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Chicago Bulls tonight shortly after the Bulls’ decision to finally move on from Zach LaVine. There were some concerning early signs regarding this Timberwolves team, but they have won five of their past seven and are getting back to their defensive identity. Naz Reid has been a key part of this all season and likely will see his role grow following the news that Julius Randle will be shut down for at least two weeks with an adductor strain.
So far this season, Reid is averaging 13.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists across his 25.6 minutes per game. The 25-year-old has tallied as many as 13 rebounds in a game this season and has recorded over 5.5 boards in 17 games. Minnesota will need to make up for the 7.2 rebounds per game Randle provides and Reid will be looked at as the most likely player to take on this responsibility. He has started the past two games, his only two starts of the season, and is in line for this to continue. Reid played a season-high 40:17 of game action in Monday night’s matchup with the Kings.
It is an extremely favorable matchup against the Bulls tonight who rank 29th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game. They also have played at the quickest pace in the league across their past 25 road games, which could further open the door for rebounding opportunities. With Reid set to see an increased opportunity in a favorable matchup and with the home crowd behind him, expect him to be active rebounding the ball throughout. The -145 odds of him reaching over 5.5 rebounds are steep, but I also think it could be worth laddering up to seven rebounds at +125 odds or eight rebounds at +215. Count on a commanding rebounding performance from Reid tonight.
Yves Missi Over 7.5 Points (-110)
The Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans are set to face off for the second consecutive game and the fourth time this season. These two teams have nearly opposite outlooks with injuries entirely derailing the outlook for the Pelicans’ season while the Nuggets seek to return to their championship aspirations that were achieved just two seasons ago. Yves Missi is one of the biggest bright spots on this Pelicans team and has been the biggest beneficiary of the injuries. The rookie has been catapulted into the starting lineup and is averaging 8.7 points and 8.1 rebounds across his 27.1 minutes per game.
Missi finished with exactly eight points in Monday’s matchup with the Nuggets and also scored 21 points in a previous matchup with Nikola Jokic and company. The Baylor product is a high-level athlete with a wide catch radius and is a threat around the rim. Jokic is unable to match his level of verticality on the offensive glass and on alley-oops, which has proven a problem in these matchups. New Orleans ranks as the sixth-best offensive rebounding team in the NBA this season with Missi a driving force with his 3.6 offensive rebounds per game.
Expect Missi to be successful in generating easy offensive putback opportunities and for his athleticism to continue to shine. The rookie has recorded over 7.5 points in 28 of the 47 games this season, including four of his past seven. Count on his work rate and athleticism to pop and for Missi to record at least eight points for the second straight night against the Nuggets.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 8.5 Points (-120)
The final matchup of the night will take place between the Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings. After an impressive start to the season, Orlando is amid a losing skid that includes losing nine of its past 10 games. This is especially surprising considering this comes after the Magic survived their initial injury concerns with the team getting closer to full strength. Jalen Suggs and Mo Wagner remain sidelined but Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have each returned from their oblique tears.
Looking at Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the veteran was brought in this offseason with the hopes of accelerating Orlando’s leap into contention. The two-time NBA champion is averaging 9.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists on the season across his 30.7 minutes per game. He has struggled as a shooter, connecting on just 41.6% of his shots from the field and 31.1% of his three-point attempts.
Overall, Caldwell-Pope has been held to under 8.5 points in 29 of the 48 games he has played in. This includes four of the previous five games. Expect Caldwell-Pope’s level of opportunity to shrink a bit as Banchero and Franz Wagner continue to settle back in together and settle in as the driving force of the offense. Caldwell-Pope’s inconsistent shooting is enough to push me away from him in this game as the Magic desperately try to get back on track. Look for him to remain under 8.5 points for the 30th time this season and for Orlando to begin experimenting with some offensive changes.
