The WM Phoenix Open is one of the best PGA events of the season. It’s known as the “People’s Championship” as it allows fans to interact with the players in stadium-like settings, unlike any other event on the PGA. The course this week isn’t overly difficult or even that creative, but it does have a couple of fun scoring holes and most importantly has been built into a great theatre for golf.
For Pick6, it’s also a venue where course history tends to be very predictive. Here is some of what I wrote about TPC Scottsdale in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for the WM Phoenix Open, up on DK Network.
“The desert setting of the course gives it a semi-links-like feel, but with tighter fairways and water in play on six of the final nine holes, it really sets up as more of a target golf environment. The average driving distance here is 10-12 yards more than the PGA TOUR average, but we’ve seen shorter hitters compete here regularly (see Webb Simpson and Nick Taylor, who won in 2020 and 2024), and past winners have tended to gain mostly on approach and via the greens with the putter.
Five of the last seven winners at TPC Scottsdale gained +5.0 or more strokes on their approaches over the field, so if a distance disadvantage off the tee is to be overcome, players will need a great week with their irons. Dominate off-the-tee play and putting can carry a player, but for shorter hitters, the key to TPC Scottsdale is great mid-to-long iron play. The 150-175 yards distance is an important basket for proximity stats, with five par 4s ranging between 450-500 yards.”
The weather for Thursday looks solid with very little wind. It’s likely we will see some solid scores as a result and I wouldn’t be shocked if the leader was at 7-under or better after Round 1.
Below I’ll give you my best ideas for Thursday’s Pick6 lineups, many of which will rely on players who have good histories at Scottsdale and are coming in with solid-to-decent form to this year’s event.
Byeong Hun An Less Than 69.5 Strokes
An has a solid history at TPC Scottsdale. He’s finished in the top 10 at this event twice and held the lead back in 2016 on the back nine on Sunday before falling apart down the stretch. This year, the South Korean comes in with some decent form having finished T-22 at Pebble last week, and he is also just a couple of months removed from his third professional win.
The 69.5 mark isn’t very high and An is also typically a great starter on courses he likes. He was top 50 in Round 1 scoring last season and has been under par in Round 1 at Scottsdale in each of the past two seasons. Given the low bar and nice weather we have on tap for Thursday, Seeing him post a 69 or better would not be overly shocking and certainly feels like the right side of this number to be on given the course history and form.
Sam Burns More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 so there are only three Par 5s, and a couple of them are tougher birdie holes. However, the venue also has some shorter par 3s and a driveable par 4, which makes it a good course for an elite putter like Burns, who can rack up birdies better than almost anyone on these simpler PGA setups.
The American comes into the week ranked first in BoB% over the last 24 rounds and is coming off a decent week at Pebble where he finished T-22. Burns will likely find the change in surface on the greens to his liking and he’s certainly torched these greens at Scottsdale in prior seasons, shooting four rounds of 68 or better at this venue last season, a run which included a final round 64. The 4.5 birdie total looks well worth taking on given we have clear skies and good temperatures for Round 1, and the PGA’s premier birdie-maker to back as well.
Si Woo Kim Less Than 69.5 Strokes
Much like An, who I mentioned above, this total on Kim for Round 1 just seems too low. The South Korean finished T-12 at Pebble last week and had another solid week on the greens, where he’s shown improvement in 2025 to date. Kim is typically a great ball striker so it wouldn’t shock me if he bounced back with his irons this week at all.
Like An, he also has had lots of success around Scottsdale, finishing T-23 and T-12 here the past two seasons. Last season, he shot four rounds of 69 or better at Scottsdale, and six of his last eight competitive rounds on the course have yielded scores of 69 or better. I think Kim is in for a big week potentially, and I like him to outperform this smaller total – just like An – in Round 1.
Hideki Matsuyama More Than 11.5 Pars
Matsuyama has a long history of playing well at Scottsdale, a run that includes two career wins and a runner-up finish. He has struggled a little bit with his putter over his last couple of events, which gives me some pause on him from a birdie-making perspective. Still, Japan’s finest knows how to get around this course and I very much doubt he’ll put together a weak effort in Round 1, with clear skies expected.
Given his lower birdie rate over the last couple of events, the better way to back him is likely just to take him to rack up a few more pars than usual on Thursday. Going back to last season, he also struggled on the greens a touch and went over 11.5 pars in two of four rounds.
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