As Super Bowl LIX approaches on Sunday, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce insisted that his focus was both on the present and the future, dismissing rumors of his impending retirement by saying that in three years, he “[plans] to be a Kansas City Chief and playing football”.
The quote must have surely been met with elation by legions of Chiefs fans, who will built a historic dynasty around arguably the postseason GOAT. But before that, they’ll have to hope that Kelce turns in a vintage performance on Sunday. After a week off, he’ll be well-rested and should play aggressively from the first snap. At DraftKings Sportsbook, he currently has the fourth-shortest odds (+1000) to score the game’s first touchdown.
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It’s certainly not out of the question; during the playoffs, Mahomes tends to lean heavily on his most reliable player. During the regular season, Kelce was the target of a team-leading 26.3% of Mahomes’ passes within the opponent’s 20-yard line, and his 18 receptions within the red zone were more than any player except for the Detroit Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase. He put up a rare stinker during the AFC Championship Game, amassing just two catches for 19 yards, but he caught an 11-yard touchdown pass in the Divisional Round, part of a seven-catch, 117-yard, one-score performance.
Kelce’s numbers speak for themselves, even if he recorded just three touchdowns during the regular season, his lowest since his rookie season in 2013 — when he did not receive a single target. Although he did not record the first score of the game at all in the 2024 season, he has scored the first touchdown three times in 18 playoff games since Mahomes became the starting quarterback, all of which have come in the last four seasons. During the regular season, he was targeted far more heavily in the first half than the second half, recording 60 of his 97 catches, 539 of his 823 yards, and two of his three touchdowns in the opening 30 minutes.
Scoring any touchdown against Philadelphia’s elite defense is going to be tough; the Eagles allowed the fewest receiving yards and the 11th-fewest touchdowns to opposing tight ends. His chances are very matchup-dependent; Pro Football Focus projects him to have 9.1 snaps against safeties, 8.7 snaps against cornerbacks, and 8.0 snaps against linebackers. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson has been the least effective member of Philadelphia’s secondary this postseason, allowing one touchdown and a 118.3 passer rating, and although cornerback Darius Slay has allowed two scores of his own, Slay primarily lines up on the outside, so he’ll probably get fewer reps against Kelce. Inside linebacker Zack Baun, a Defensive Player of the Year finalist, has also allowed one touchdown on 22 targets in the postseason.
