The Kansas City Chiefs are playing their best football of the season entering Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Sunday. So are the Philadelphia Eagles, which should make the Chiefs’ quest for a third consecutive Super Bowl title — and their second in three years over the Eagles — an instant classic.
Both teams’ offenses are fairly high-powered — in the postseason, Philadelphia has averaged 35.0 points per game and is fresh off a 55-point performance against the Washington Commanders, and Kansas City has posted 27.5 points per game, including a 32-29 shootout against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game.
But the Bills’ defense was far from elite during the regular season and was heavily banged up during the conference championship, with star safety Taylor Rapp out and top cornerback Christian Benford getting carted off with a head injury. The Eagles’ defense, meanwhile, is arguably the best in the NFL, with an elite run defense and a secondary that has played incredibly in the postseason. Philadelphia has allowed just 18.3 points per game during the postseason, the second-fewest in the league, and with the exception of a 36-33 loss to the Commanders in Week 16, they haven’t allowed more than 23 points in a game since Week 4.
The Chiefs won’t be any different; i’m taking them to score fewer than 23.5 points (+110).
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Maybe I’m disrespecting Kansas City, given that it’s the league’s two-time defending champion and has a 17-2 record between the regular season and postseason, but I’ve just been more convinced by the Eagles the whole season. Philadelphia’s simply a bad matchup for the Chiefs; they won’t be able to get their running game going, given that their running backs, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, rank 55th and 61st, respectively, in yards after contact per rush (among 73 qualified rushers). To make matters worse, Kansas City’s best receiver, tight end Travis Kelce, might by stymied by a defense that allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends and 11th-fewest touchdowns this season.
The Chiefs may have scored 38 points in Super Bowl LVII two seasons ago, but that was a different Eagles defense that didn’t have linebacker Zack Baun — a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year — or lockdown cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, both of whom are finalists for Defensive Rookie of the Year and have stepped up their performance tremendously in the playoffs. Philadelphia also didn’t have game-wrecking nose tackle Jalen Carter, who was named to the All-Pro Second Team in just his second season. If Kansas City wins on Sunday, it won’t be in another shootout.
