Arguably the X-factor for the Kansas City Chiefs’ quest to lift the Lombardi Trophy for the third consecutive season is the team’s improved wide receiver corps. Not only did the Chiefs trade for future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins during the season and draft rookie Xavier Worthy in the first round, they also signed former Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Hollywood Brown to a one-year, incentive-laden contract on March 14, 2024.
Brown’s production has been relatively muted this year because he missed the first 14 games of the season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in the preseason. He garnered 15 targets on just 45 snaps in his two regular-season games, hauling in nine of them for 91 yards. In the postseason, he has played a majority of the team’s snaps, although he has only recorded three catches for 35 yards.
In honor of the big game, DraftKings Sportsbook has launched a series of novelty props, including jersey number props, one of which is for Brown to record exactly as many catches as his jersey number — five.
Bet on Super Bowl Jersey Specials at DraftKings Sportsbook, including Marquise Brown to Have Exactly 5 Receptions here.
The +400 odds are fairly generous, given that Brown ranked second on the team in target share in the games he played during the regular season, behind only Travis Kelce. Although he has only reached five receptions once in his first four games in Kansas City, it’s not completely inconceivable that he could get there against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. Pro Football Focus projects him to receive 5.6 targets and 3.5 receptions.
His career catch rate is a fairly paltry 59.6%, a rate that would’ve ranked just 204th among 249 qualified receivers this season, and he hasn’t recorded a single game with a 100% catch rate since Week 1 of the 2021 season. Therefore, it’s unlikely that he’ll reach five receptions unless Mahomes targets him at least eight times in the Super Bowl, and he’s attracted eight targets just once in his Chiefs tenure so far.
It’s possible that Philadelphia will bottle up his top target, Travis Kelce — the Eagles allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season — forcing Mahomes to turn to Brown. I certainly like Brown better than Mahomes’ other wide receivers, besides possibly Xavier Worthy. He also has the best matchup of any of Kansas City’s wideouts; he is expected to line up most frequently against Darius Slay, who has a worse passer rating allowed (90.5) this postseason than either slot corner Cooper DeJean (74.0) or Quinyon Mitchell (4.8). If the Chiefs show any four-receiver sets, he also could get some reps against safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who’s been the worst coverage defender on Philadelphia’s roster so far this postseason.
Ultimately, when the lights are brightest, Mahomes will probably lean heavily on his most reliable targets, and in the postseason, those have clearly been Kelce and Worthy. It’s unlikely he’ll catch more than five passes; he hasn’t done that since his second-to-last game with the Arizona Cardinals. Still, given the talent in the Eagles’ secondary and the chemistry between Mahomes, Kelce, and Worthy, there are better long-shot bets available.
