Chiefs gunslinger Patrick Mahomes looks to add to his trophy case in New Orleans on Sunday as he takes on the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
The three-time Super Bowl MVP could lead the Kansas City Chiefs to the first championship three-peat of the Super Bowl era with a win. If he and his team emerge victorious, what are the odds Mahomes adds a fourth Super Bowl MVP to his already-stacked resume?
Let’s start with the historical precedent, including some recent results:
- Quarterbacks have won the award 33 times in 58 years, nearly 57% of the time
- Signal-callers have taken home Super Bowl MVP seven times in the last 10 seasons, a 70% rate
- Going back a little bit further, quarterbacks have won the award in 11 of the last 15 years, a 73% mark
It makes sense that voters favor whichever quarterback leads their team to a win. After all, they’re often the face of their franchise, and they’re the only player who touches the ball on every offensive play. Simply put, voters just believe they impact winning more than any other player, and that’s mostly true. Over the 15-year span referred to earlier, every Super Bowl MVP-winning quarterback met one of two key criteria. They either threw for at least 280 yards or tossed multiple touchdowns in a winning effort.
The only QBs to not hit that yardage total are Tom Brady in Super Bowl LV and Mahomes himself in Super Bowl LVII. While Brady tallied passing 201 yards and Mahomes finished with just 182, both stars threw three touchdowns in their respective victories. Notably, Eli Manning is the only SBMVP-winning QB in the last decade and a half to throw only one score. However, that touchdown was one of just two by the Giants offense in Super Bowl XLVI, and he also crossed the yardage threshold by completing an impressive 30 of his 40 passes for 296 yards.
With these guidelines in mind, it’s clear that Mahomes’ path to his fourth Super Bowl MVP hinges on his ability to create the majority of his team’s yardage, points, or both. The Chiefs haven’t leaned heavily on the pass over the course of this season, instead preferring to run the clock via the ground game. Against a very strong Philadelphia squad, they may be forced to let Mahomes play more like past versions of his gunslinging self and open up the passing game a bit more, especially if they fall behind and are forced to play catch-up.
Even with that said, though, Mahomes has the benefit of being a dual-threat quarterback. He’s used his legs less this season than in past years, but is still very capable of scrambling when a play falls apart, as well as finding the end zone if necessary. If he rushes for, say, 30+ yards or a ground touchdown, that would serve as a major bump for his MVP case.
Now to take a brief look at the non-QB winners over the last 15 years. In Super Bowl XLVIII, Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith took a pass for a pick-six, recovered a fumble, and made 10 tackles in a blowout win over the Broncos. Two years later, Broncos EDGE Von Miller logged 2.5 sacks, six tackles, and one pass defensed against the Panthers. They’re the last two defenders to win Super Bowl MVP among just seven all-time, so it’s evident anyone on that side of the ball must impact the contest in a game-breaking way to win.
As for the other two cases, Patriots wideout Julian Edelman caught 10 catches for 141 yards and accounted for over half of his team’s air yardage in a low-scoring Super Bowl LIII victory over the Rams. Finally, Rams receiver Cooper Kupp hauled in eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning score, against the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. In short, it takes true heroics for anyone besides a quarterback to take the award home.
Barring such heroics, it appears likely that Mahomes would be crowned Super Bowl MVP if the Chiefs win against the Eagles on Sunday. Not only does he clearly possess the talent to earn it along with a positional advantage of sorts, consider that his performance will be one of, if not the main factor in determining whether the NFL sees its first-ever Super Bowl three-peat. And if he does win it, Mahomes will pass Joe Montana and take sole possession of second place in SBMVP awards with four, just one behind Brady.
As of Monday, Mahomes is listed as the favorite to win Super Bowl LIX MVP at +120 odds. This could be a good opportunity to take the favorite at plus-money. Next up after Mahomes? Saquon Barkley at +260 and Jalen Hurts at +350 odds.
