Oh, you think three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes has a good chance to take home the hardware again on Sunday? You think Saquon Barkley might standout if the Eagles win it all? Stop being so conformist, dude. Get your head out of the sand. Learn to think for yourself.
I’m kidding. …sort of. The truth of the matter is that the quarterback of the favored squad should obviously be a popular bet. Any QB should be among the shortest odds, honestly. A quarterback has been awarded Super Bowl MVP 33 times — by far the most of any position. In fact, when it comes to the aforementioned Barkley, a running back has not won MVP since all the way back in 1998 when Terrell Davis led the Broncos to glory. It’s been awhile.
Still, we’re not here to talk up the favorites. We’re here to break down some long shots. If you’re looking to get a little wild, here are a couple options at the bottom of the board for Super Bowl LIX.
Super Bowl 2025 MVP Odds
Kareem Hunt (+6000)
Two months ago, I’m not sure anyone thought we’d have this much clarity about the Chiefs’ running back committee. If anything, I’m sure many people expected that Isiah Pacheco (+13000) would be back in his old pre-injury role by now, but that’s simply not that case. In fact, Pacheco is seeing his role diminish week-by-week. As such, we’ve been witnessing the rise of Kareem Hunt, who has now scored a touchdown in each of his last four starts. Hunt’s also seen his snap share continue to tick-up, spiking at 58% in the AFC Championship Game after logging a 47% snap rate against the Texans in the Divisional Round. Hunt finished with 17 carries versus Buffalo — his most since all the way back in Week 9. The Eagles have one of the league’s best run defenses, yet Hunt has been cemented as Kansas City’s goal line back. If he can find the end zone multiple times, these odds will seem ludicrous in hindsight.
Marquise Brown (+13000)
I need to preface the case for Brown with a couple sobering statistics. Philadelphia’s pass defense is elite. Specifically, the Eagles have done a fantastic job limiting chunk plays from opponents, as the team surrendered the fewest 20-plus yard passing plays (35) and the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.5). Still, that doesn’t mean those big plays never happened. That’s a key distinction. And, if anyone is going to be getting behind Philadelphia’s secondary, or at least be getting the chance, it’s likely going to be Hollywood Brown. The veteran wideout hasn’t stood out much this postseason with just three receptions and 35 yards in two games, but Brown did carry a massive target share in Week 16 and Week 17 after returning from injury. Also, though Brown was held without a catch against the Texans, he did possess a 33.5-yard aDOT in that matchup. He’d follow that up with a 14.6-yard aDOT versus the Bills. If he starts catching those deep targets on Sunday, he could put up quite the stat line.
Nolan Smith (+15000)
If you want a testament to how well the Eagles draft, look no further than their last two first-round picks: Quinyon Mitchell and Nolan Smith. Under normal circumstances, I’d say that the first-year lockdown corner would be coming out of these playoffs as a household name, but he’s actually being overshadowed by his sophomore teammate. Smith’s truly hit his stride after an underwhelming rookie campaign. Heck, after not registering a single sack in September, Smith finished the regular season on a high note with a sack in two of his final three games. However, that was a precursor for things to come, as Smith’s collected four sacks and a bushel of QB pressures in Philadelphia’s playoff run. One of the Chiefs’ few weakness is an offensive line in flux and Smith could certainly take advantage. The 24-year-old is a breakout star and capping off this postseason with a Super Bowl MVP would be incredibly fitting.
