The entire NBA world is still reeling from one of the most shocking trades in sports history that broke in the twilight hours of last night. Just hours after LeBron James produced a 33-point triple-double at Madison Square Garden, news broke that Luka Doncic would be joining him on the Lakers in a trade centered around Anthony Davis.
With ESPN’s Shams Charania the first to report this, despite the speculation he may have been hacked, the terms of the trade are as follows:
The effects of this were felt in the DraftKings Sportsbook futures market to a major extent.
Lakers’ Futures Market Odds Movement:
The Lakers were largely outperforming realistic expectations for them this season and sit in fifth place in the Western Conference with a 28-19 record on the season. With a loaded Western Conference, optimism remained low for their postseason chances. Los Angeles held 45/1 odds of winning the championship and 20/1 odds of winning the Western Conference on DraftKings Sportsbook before the trade for Doncic was complete.
Following the trade, the Lakers shot up the futures markets and saw their championship odds move to 20/1 to win the NBA Championship and 10/1 to win the Western Conference as of 1:00 A.M. ET this morning. The shift has continued as the day has progressed, with the Lakers now holding 17/1 odds of winning the Championship and +950 odds of winning the Western Conference on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mavericks’ Futures Market Odds Movement:
After making it to the Western Conference Finals just last season, expectations were high for the Dallas Mavericks. Injuries have been the driving factor why they have underwhelmed to this point, with both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving missing some time. Dallas remains the eighth seed in the Western Conference with a 26-23 record. Even still, it is a team no one wants to see in the playoffs and it held 20/1 odds of winning the NBA Championship this season and 9/1 odds of winning the Western Conference before the trade.
With Luka Doncic sent away and Anthony Davis coming to Dallas, the Mavericks saw their odds of winning a championship move in the opposite direction. Immediately following the trade, the Mavericks moved to 35/1 to win the NBA Championship and 16/1 to win the West. There has been some slight movement since the initial odds shift at 1:00 A.M. ET, with Dallas still holding 35/1 odds of winning the NBA Championship but 15/1 odds of winning the Western Conference on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Why the Lakers Made the Trade:
The drastic change in championship odds is notable, but this trade is a much bigger conversation than the outlook for just this season. Luka Doncic is just 25 years old and has one of the most accomplished resumes of any player his age. The five-time All-NBA guard and reigning scoring champion has finished in the top eight in MVP voting in each of the past five seasons after winning Rookie of the Year in his first season in the league. Doncic has proven capable of serving as the face of a franchise and taking a team deep in the playoffs as evidenced by last season’s Western Conference title.
LeBron James continues to put up one of the best battles with Father Time that we have ever seen. The 40-year-old is showing little signs of slowing down and is averaging 24.0 points, 9.1 assists and 7.6 rebounds on the season overall. But even James is not capable of playing forever.
Doncic will be the face of the Lakers for the foreseeable future and will captivate Los Angeles fans with his shotmaking ability and creative playmaking that few in the league can rival. The Lakers have the luxury of being a destination franchise, which has allowed them to avoid going through lengthy rebuilds in the way most franchises are forced to. They have managed to be proactive in adding a marquee name, whether it is through free agency, the trade market or the draft. Names like Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, LeBron James and plenty of others have carried the responsibility of being the face of the Lakers, with Doncic now set to be next in line. Rob Pelinka and the front office were proactive (and dare I say opportunistic) in finding a deal that most expected to be impossible and jumped at the chance.
In the short term, expect some growing pains as Doncic learns how to play alongside James and his new teammates. Injuries have diluted the statistics a bit this season but Doncic finished last season ranked second in the NBA in touches and individual time of possession with the ball. Neither Doncic nor James are particularly strong moving off the ball and the Lakers’ defense takes a significant hit without Anthony Davis protecting the rim. Their roster should also be viewed as unfinished with a massive need for a center now obvious on the roster.
Even still, the hardest part of building a successful NBA basketball team is finding the primary star to build the rest of the roster around and Luka Doncic is exactly that. It may not lead to the short-term success some are hoping for, but count on Doncic growing into the face of the Lakers for the next era of Los Angeles basketball and don’t be shocked if this is only the beginning of a historic level of accolades.
Why the Mavericks Made the Trade:
This section has a much more unclear and confusing answer. When the largest reaction to the trade news was wondering if Shams Charania had been hacked, it isn’t a great sign for a front office.
Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison has met with the media and is painting his viewpoint of this being a win-now move with Dallas wanting to lean further into its defensive identity. This point falls a bit short considering Doncic took this team to the NBA Finals last season and is conservatively viewed as a universal top-eight player in the league.
This is not to undersell Anthony Davis as a player. The nine-time All-Star can absolutely lead the charge defensively and has made the All-Defensive team five times in his career as evidence. Davis is in the midst of an extremely impressive season and is averaging 25.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.1 blocks per game this season. However, he is set to turn 32 years old next month and has a lengthy injury history that has made teams nervous for years. To his credit, Davis played 76 games last year and has played 42 of the 47 games so far this season. But he also suited up for just 132 of a possible 246 games in the three seasons prior and his chances of staying healthy do not increase as he gets older.
Dallas will still be competitive with the duo of Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis being capable of making some noise and some high-level role players around them. The concern would be for how long this can be the case with the two stars on the north side of 30 and Dallas having already traded away its 2027 first-round pick to the Hornets, the Thunder holding the rights to swap its 2028 draft pick, the Nets holding possession of its 2029 first-round pick and the Spurs holding the right to swap picks in 2030. The DraftKings odds disagree with the organization’s stance that this is a win-now move. But Dallas better be right as there is a concerning future on the horizon if things do not work out for the Mavericks.
In addition, Harrison revealed there were no trade conversations with any other teams when speaking to the media. While there is value in keeping things close to the vest to avoid organizational distractions, (look toward the Miami Heat as an example of the opposite of this) Dallas almost certainly could have gotten a larger return if it had allowed a bidding war to take place or for Doncic to truly hit the open market. If the motivation was purely to move on from Doncic, one would think this is the direction it would take.
There still feels like there is more to the story than has fully come public at this point and this will be something to monitor in the coming days. It has been widely reported that Doncic did NOT request a trade from Dallas. The 25-year-old was eligible for a supermax extension for five years worth $346 million with the Mavericks but will not have access to this high of a figure following the trade. Doncic still has one season and a player option remaining on his current deal, which he will carry over with him to Los Angeles.
NBA Outlook from here:
The NBA trade deadline is Thursday, Feb. 6th at 3:00 P.M. ET. This will be a difficult trade to top but there is sure to be plenty more movement across the league as teams try to improve their rosters ahead of the playoff push. Expect both the Lakers and Mavericks to be involved in conversations as well with both rosters having holes as they were not built around the superstar they now have.
There are plenty of whispers around the NBA with Jimmy Butler and De’Aaron Fox headlining the most likely stars to be moved. With the new CBA proving more restrictive than ever before, there are sure to be plenty of financially motivated moves set to take place as well. While this is far from the top of the list of why this particular deal was done, it should be noted Dallas is now under the luxury tax following the trade.
