We get Eagles vs. Chiefs Part Deux, as these teams met in Super Bowl LVII, with the Chiefs emerging with the 38-35 victory.
We have many similarities from that one: Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni are the head coaches. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are the quarterbacks. Travis Kelce is still Mahomes’ boo while A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith continue to give the Eagles wings. Steve Spagnuolo is still scheming and dialing up blitzes.
Kansas City has a new offensive coordinator from two seasons ago while Philadelphia replaced both coordinators. The big difference, though, is that the Eagles now have Saquon Barkley.
This past season, Philadelphia posted the second-lowest EPA per dropback for pass defense. Only Denver was better. Kansas City was 16th. Philadelphia and Kansas City were 12th and 13th for interceptions while being 15th and 19th for sacks.
On the ground, the Eagles posted the fifth-lowest EPA per carry while the Chiefs were 11th. The Chiefs allowed 13 rushing touchdowns, the sixth-fewest, while the Eagles allowed only nine touchdowns, the second-fewest.
For offense, Philadelphia had the sixth-best EPA per dropback while Kansas City was eighth. The Eagles had the third-highest EPA per carry while the Chiefs were eighth. Philadelphia had the lowest passing rate at 44.14 percent while Kansas City was 13th at 57.89 percent.
DraftKings Sportsbook has KC -1.5 over PHI with the total at 48.5.
As for injuries, there is no one of significance for Kansas City. For Philadelphia, RB Barkley, WR Brown, TE Dallas Goedert and WR Smith did not practice last week. Smith was the only one not sitting due to rest. RB Kenneth Gainwell is questionable. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $5M Super Bowl LIX Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible] (Super Bowl)
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Hurts ($15,600 CP): The dual threat ability — [cough] Tush [cough] Push — provides such a nice floor/ceiling combo for Hurts, despite not being voluminous in the passing game. Hurts has put up over 20 FPTS nine times this season with three of those over 30. In games that he finished, the low was 15 FPTS. It’s not just the Tush Push, though, as Hurts still scrambles and has designed runs called for him. In that Super Bowl two seasons ago, Hurts went 27-of-38 for 304 yards and a touchdown while rushing 15 times for 70 yards and three touchdowns.
UTIL Plays
Dallas Goedert ($5,800): The raw target numbers for Goedert won’t blow you away, but when you factor in that the Eagles are dead-last in passing rate, then things are a little rosier. Since returning to action after a four-week absence, Goedert has received six, six, four and eight targets. That translated to at least 9.5 FPTS in all with two over 14 FPTS. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most FPTS to tight ends on average.
Patrick Mahomes ($10,000): Mahomes hasn’t been the fantasy stud we all envisioned, as defenses took away the explosive plays, and Mahomes and Andy Reid were more than content to dink-and-dunk their opponents into submission. But if game script calls for it, Mahomes always seems to dial up the fantasy goodies, whether with his arm or feet. Against Buffalo in the AFC Championship, Mahomes went 18-of-26 for 245 yards and a touchdown through the air but also rushed 11 times for 43 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles are stout up front and battering running backs may not be the path of least resistance. If the Chiefs are going to score, it will likely be through the arm and legs of Mahomes.
Xavier Worthy ($8,000): Worthy didn’t play in 80 percent of the snaps until Week 14, but since then, he garnered six, 11, 11 and nine targets before playing only 3 percent of the snaps in Week 18. In the two playoff games, Worthy saw six and seven targets, converting those to 8.7 and 22.1 FPTS. The 4.21 40 speed can score on any given play, and Reid also designs some runs for him.
Fades
Saquon Barkley ($12,000): I’m scared and this could obviously go horribly wrong, but Barkley is expensive and touchdown dependent. Barkley doesn’t catch many passes and the Chiefs have been good in limiting rushing touchdowns. The ownership will likely be high and I’m telling the story that the offense flows through Hurts in this one.
THE OUTCOME
I kind of like the Eagles in this one. They have been one of the best and most balanced teams all season. They are familiar with Spagnuolo’s defense and the threat of Barkley could open things up for Hurts. At least that’s the story I’m telling. The Eagles defense should shut down the Chiefs running game, making Mahomes one-dimensional. He’s still going to get his, but not enough to secure the three-peat.
Final Score: Eagles 31, Chiefs 23
