One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports is set to take place this weekend as the North Carolina Tar Heels travel to take on the Duke Blue Devils. The matchup may not hold the same level of hype as most years, but the storied history of these two programs speaks for itself.
Duke holds the same outlook that has become the standard for the program. They enter as the second-ranked team in the nation and hold the best odds to win the NCAA Tournament at +450 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Cooper Flagg headlines a star-studded roster with multiple future NBA draft picks. The Blue Devils hold an 18-2 record on the season and enter this matchup on a 14-game winning streak.
It is not quite the same outlook for North Carolina. The Tar Heels are just 13-9 on the year and will enter this matchup unranked. Despite some notable names returning to the school, headlined by RJ Davis, things have not clicked for this UNC team and they have had several frustrating losses throughout the year.
Duke enters this game as 13.5-point favorites. North Carolina holds +675 odds on the moneyline with the game total set at 149.5 points.
Duke vs. North Carolina Analysis
Duke star Cooper Flagg is coming off one of his best games of the season against NC State which is a high bar based on his standard. Flagg dropped 28 points, with 23 coming in the second half, while adding seven rebounds and three assists. The likely future number one pick is averaging 19.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per game on the season and has imposed himself on both sides of the floor.
Duke’s production goes beyond just Flagg with freshman guard Kon Kneuppel averaging 13.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists in his own right. Tyrese Proctor also plays a key role and Khaman Maluach’s 7-foot-2 monstrous frame helps hold things down on the interior.
As a team, Duke ranks 54th in the country in scoring with 80.0 points per game and holds opponents to just 59.5 points per game which is fifth-best. They also rank 26th in rebounding and are holding opponents to just 37.2% shooting from the field this season which also ranks fifth. The Blue Devils are 12-8 against the spread on the season.
North Carolina is 7-14-1 ATS and has lost three of its past four games. It most recently lost to Pittsburgh, a game in which it held a 10-point first half lead. Pitt ended the game on a 14-2 run over the final 6:36 of play to cement the frustrating loss. Doubt looks to have slipped into this team with some concerning quotes beginning to leak out of the locker room. While the path will not be easy, a victory over Duke is the type of win that could get North Carolina back on track for the season.
Even with the frustrations, North Carolina ranks 34th in the country in scoring with 81.7 points per game. They also rank 84th in rebounding and get to the free-throw line at the 54th-best rate. Most of their issues have been on the defensive side of the ball with the Tar Heels allowing 76.2 points per game which ranks 300th in the country.
RJ Davis headlines the production for the Tar Heels and is averaging 17.6 points, 4.0 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game. Last year’s ACC Player of the Year has taken a step back in production and is shooting just 39.7% from the field and 30.3% from beyond the arc. Ian Jackson averages 14.7 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. He has a case for North Carolina’s most talented player, but is still fully putting the pieces together for the season. Seth Tremble and Elliot Cadeau will each also be a factor on this guard-dominant team. Jalen Washington will have his hands full on the interior as he enters as North Carolina’s largest regular forward standing at 6-foot-10.
The Pick: Duke -13.5
The talent gap is not as large as this spread would indicate and there is sure to be some extra juice in the air with the rivalry taking place. But there is just not enough evidence to suggest that North Carolina can put together a complete performance to give a team like Duke a true challenge. UNC is just 1-8 against Quad 1 opponents this season and Duke has been consistently better on both sides of the ball.
Cooper Flagg is playing like the best player in college basketball and North Carolina will have no answer for his relentless effort and polished skillset. Duke has proven capable of winning games when their offense runs cold and Jon Scheyer has made some high-level adjustments that have benefitted the team. In contrast, so much of the issues with North Carolina have been self-inflicted and there is not much of a sample size of what this team can look like if they play their best.
Expect this game to remain close for a good portion of the first half before Duke can run away with things. 13.5 points is a huge spread, but Duke is playing like one of the best teams in college basketball and this is another key notch to add to their resume.
