Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Pelicans star Zion Williamson to have a 50% chance to play. Zion was a downgrade to questionable early this afternoon with a non-COVID illness, throwing his status up in the air on a day he would have been a very interesting option for NBA DFS tournaments and prop bets. While I’m sure we’re all shocked to hear that Zion may miss a game with his Cal Ripken-esque reliability, it’s one of the more important situations to watch on tonight’s slate of NBA games.
Despite whatever trade rumors or allegations of team or player discontent, Zion Williamson has been the best version of himself this year. He averages 1.52 DraftKings Points Per Minute on 35.9% usage, a 15.4% rebound rate and a 33.7% assist rate. His rates get even more impressive with Brandon Ingram off the court; Zion clocks 39.5% usage, a 15.9% rebound rate and a 36.4% rebound rate, creating an otherworldly 1.7 DraftKings Points Per Minute. With Ingram out yet again tonight, Zion would be in for a lot of opportunity in a game where New Orleans needs his production.
With a matchup versus Boston, Zion’s status tonight is key for gambling markets, as well, as the likelihood of the Pelicans being able to keep this game competitive drops without his services. The Pelicans are currently an 11.5-point underdog at home tonight.
If Zion Williamson plays, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections project him for 21.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 26 minutes of action. If he hits the upper band of playing time, he’d be a compelling low-owned play in tournaments like DraftKings’ Friday 8’s with an $8 entry fee and $100,000 to first place. At his $8,400 salary, Zion projects for under 5% ownership according to industry data.
If Zion sits, he’d open a ton of possessions for his teammates — admittedly, in an uphill battle versus Boston. Here’s how Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would look for Zion’s Pelicans teammates whether he sits or plays:
- Dejounte Murray projects for 18.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists (16.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists if Zion plays)
- CJ McCollum projects for 21.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists (18.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists if Zion plays)
- Trey Murphy projects for 21.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists (19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists if Zion plays)
- Yves Missi projects for 9.4 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists (8.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.1 assists if Zion plays)
DraftKings Sportsbook’s lines appear currently priced for Zion Williamson to miss the game with low Expected Value for bets using Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections with Zion out in the data set. However, if Zion were to play, Unabated’s bet simulation tools would anticipate 33.1% Expected Value on Dejounte Murray’s under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line, 35.5% EV on CJ McCollum under 28.5 PRAs, and 8.6% EV on Trey Murphy’s under 28.5 PRAs line. If you see news that Zion will play tonight, it’s likely a good move to pounce on unders for his key teammates with their lines now overpriced on the probability that Zion misses the game.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
