There are some critical fixtures on the tap for Matchweek 24 as the Premier League is squarely in the second half of its schedule. The January transfer window is coming to a close, and the only move so far that could realistically change the battle for European places is Aston Villa wonderkid Jhon Duran making a big-money move to Saudi Arabia.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for players looking to get it on the Premier League action. Here are my top betting picks for Matchweek 24 in England’s top flight.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures for Matchweek 23:
Brighton & Hove Albion at Nottingham Forest, 7:30 a.m. EST, February 1
Liverpool at AFC Bournemouth, 10 a.m. EST, February 1
Leicester City at Everton, 10 a.m. EST, February 1
Southampton at Ipswich Town, 10 a.m. EST, February 1
Fulham at Newcastle United, 10 a.m. EST, February 1
Aston Villa at Wolves, 12:30 p.m. EST, February 1
Tottenham at Brentford, 9 a.m. EST, February 2
Crystal Palace at Manchester United, 9 a.m. EST, February 2
Manchester City at Arsenal, 11:30 a.m. EST, February 2
West Ham United at Chelsea, 3 p.m. EST, February 3
Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+160)
Nottingham Forest was the talk of the Premier League in recent weeks, having barely avoided relegation last season before climbing into third place and battling for the European places all season. To sit just three points behind Arsenal and three points ahead of Manchester City and Newcastle is an incredibly impressive season. But Forest has to have a bad taste in its mouth after getting clobbered 5-0 by Bournemouth in Matchweek 23. The Cherries are an excellent team and Liverpool will take them seriously this weekend, but a drubbing over Forest was hardly on the cards.
Still, the performance wasn’t as bad as the scoreline would indicate. Although they lost the expected goal battle to Bournemouth, the margin was only 1.7 to 1.0, meaning that the Cherries did exceptionally well to score five times and Forest was unlucky not to find the back of the net. Plenty of teams have picked up all three points while losing the expected goal battle by a bigger margin; it just wasn’t Forest’s day. They’re still an excellent team that rarely loses at the City Ground. Forest has won six of its 11 games at home, although Brighton has only lost three times on the road.
Meanwhile, the Seagulls are coming off a dispiriting performance at home, losing 1-0 to Everton, who sit just 16th in the table. In that match, their chances were worth just 0.7 expected goals, and they managed to put just one of their 16 shots on target. Granted, the Toffees’ defense has been pretty good, but the fact that Brighton has only recorded 2.0 xG or more only twice this season is problematic. Six goals shouldn’t be enough to lead a team battling for Europe.
U3.5 Goals and Liverpool to Win (+170)
This is a battle between two of the best attacks in the Premier League — by expected goals — and two of the three best defenses. The league leaders have smashed 54 goals into the back of the net, seven more than any other team, while Bournemouth has created better chances than any squad except the Reds and Chelsea. However, Liverpool has allowed just 21 goals, and Cherries keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga has allowed just 26 past. So what will come out on top, attack or defense?
I believe it’ll be the defenses, given that the Reds have given up fewer than 1.0 xG in each of their last seven Premier League matches, indicating that they’ve actually been unlucky to concede the six goals that they have across that stretch. Meanwhile, Bournemouth’s attack has been exceptionally lucky, as the Cherries have scored 11 goals in their last three Premier League matches from just 4.9 xG. Their defense has also been on form; the last time they conceded more than two goals was November 9.
As for the winner of the match, it’ll be Liverpool because they’re far and away the best side in the Premier League. The Reds’ expected goal difference is +32.2, 15 full goals better than Arsenal in second, and they’re up by six points with a game in hand. Liverpool is firmly running away with its 20th top-flight league title, and even a feisty Bournemouth side that has lost just twice at Vitality Stadium won’t stop them from doing that.
Liam Delap Anytime Goal Scorer (+100)
With Liverpool six points ahead of Arsenal and a game in hand — which could stretch to nine if the Gunners lose to Manchester City on Sunday — the title race is effectively over, and the far more interesting battle is that to avoid relegation, especially with some big names in the mix to suffer the drop. Last season, Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town all survived just one season in the top flight, which was the first time in the Premier League era that that had happened. Saturday’s match between Ipswich Town and Southampton is a vital relegation six-pointer, although the Saints seem almost guaranteed to go down.
Ipswich has lost its last two games by a combined score of 10-1, but to be fair, its competition — Manchester City at home and Liverpool at Anfield — couldn’t have been much harder. It also lost just 5-1 by expected goals across the two games, which is not impressive but also not nearly as bad. Meanwhile, Southampton hasn’t picked up a Premier League point since December 22, although it has scored in each of its last three matches. Amazingly, the Saints don’t have a single player with more than two goals in the top flight this season.
The Tractor Boys at least have a proven scorer, 21-year-old Liam Delap, who has found the back of the net in seven different matches this season and is posting career bests on-target rate (48.6%) and goals per shot (0.17). Although he’s been held scoreless in each of his last three Premier League matches, those came against Liverpool, Man City, and Brighton, three above-average defenses. Unsurprisingly, Southampton has the league’s worst defense by both goals allowed and expected goals allowed.
Brentford Moneyline (+105)
Last week, I predicted Tottenham and Leicester City to draw, noting that as bad as Spurs have been this season, the Foxes have looked relegation-bound for most of the season. The fact that Leicester clawed out a 2-1 victory, beating Tottenham in xG as well (1.6-1.0), underscored the absolute disaster unfolding in North London. Spurs should still survive the drop — they’re eight points clear of Wolves, who have a difficult matchup this weekend against Aston Villa, and seven points above the Foxes, who would drop back into the bottom three if Ipswich can beat Southampton — but the fact that Championship football is even a possibility is a travesty for one of England’s richest franchises.
At some point, Tottenham will pick up a win and get itself back on track, and, granted, some of its losses have been to good teams (Liverpool, Forest, Newcastle, and Arsenal) since its most recent top-flight victory. Still, that win was over the Saints, so does it really count? Discounting Southampton, Spurs have won just one Premier League match since November 3, although that was a 4-0 shocker over Manchester City.
Meanwhile, Brentford is an average team, sitting 11th in the table with nine wins, 10 losses, and a plus-two goal difference. But while the Bees have been atrocious away from home, picking up more points than only Saints, they have been buzzing at Gtech Community Stadium. Their remarkable form at the stadium has dropped off somewhat, picking up just one point from their last four home games, although those matches came against the four teams atop the league. Tottenham is clearly not as good as Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, or Man City, meaning Brentford should get back to its winning ways at home.
Manchester City O1.5 Goals (+170)
Last season, this match would have carried the ultimate intrigue, given that Manchester City has pipped Arsenal to the title in each of the past two seasons. However, with the Gunners six points behind Liverpool and City a further six points back, Pep Guardiola has admitted that his team is out of the title fight, and Arsenal will be too with a loss. The Reds seem to be running away with the league, leaving the more intriguing race the battle for a top-four finish and a Champions League place for next season.
Manchester City’s attack is back in full form. I bet that City would score two or fewer goals in Matchweek 8 of the Champions League, and they thwarted that with three second-half goals. In what has seemed to be a rough season for him in many ways, Erling Haaland has found the back of the net 18 times in 23 league competitions, including five goals in his last five games. The Norwegian is simply inevitable, and his running mate, last year’s Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden, is starting to find his form as well, scoring six goals in his last four games. City has scored 15 goals in its last four Premier League matches, accruing 9.3 xG across that span.
Arsenal does have arguably the best defense in the Premier League, and the center back pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel is one of the most-feared duos in the world. This season, the Gunners have conceded just 21 goals, joint-fewest with Liverpool, who have played one fewer game. They also have allowed just 20.4 expected goals, the second-fewest in the league. Goalkeeper David Raya is having arguably the best season of his career, tying for third in the Premier League in clean sheets. But Arsenal has conceded two goals in two of its last four Premier League matches, to Newcastle and Aston Villa, who have both scored fewer goals this season than Manchester City.
