Best get those iced coffees with a turbo shot tomorrow, because the first of five ranked NCAAM games throughout the entire slate tips off in Knoxville, Tennessee tomorrow at 12:00 pm E.T. The free-falling Vols (17-4, 4-4 SEC), who’ve lost three of their last four games, and who’ve also hosted five straight SEC home games, host the surging Florida Gators (18-2, 5-2 SEC). And, of course, the big storyline here will be the potential revenge game for Tennessee, as Florida boatraced the Vols 73-43 last they played at the O’Connell Center. Where we’ll have to watch for a trap is in the added desperation stakes for Tennessee: They just lost to both Kentucky and Auburn, and are officially on the outside-looking-in re. the hunt for this year’s SEC title.
As of this afternoon, the betting market for this game is available on DraftKings Sportsbook, and you can find it here. Tennessee is currently a four-point home favorite, with Florida at +160 on the Moneyline, and a game total clocking in at 140.5.
Below is my preferred play for this marquee-lights matchup to tip off an inspiring Saturday of college hoops, plus some analysis on how I see TEN vs. FLA playing out.
No. 5 Florida vs. No. 8 Tennessee prediction
Overview
Like any story in which Rick Barnes features as a key player, a lot of this game is going to come down to elite play the defensive side of the ball. I think the standings-related stakes for the Vols will result in some aggressive defensive looks from the home team so as to throw Florida’s lethal back court of Walter Clayton (17.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists) and Alijah Martin (16.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists) off rhythm early and often.
Of the several things that need to go right in this game, perhaps paramount to their defensive strategy is forcing Florida’s stars to put up absolute clunkers. A total disruption of those two guards’ ability to drive hard to the basket and their efficient three-point shooting is a must. Otherwise, Tennessee is staring down the barrel of an all-systems-humming number-two offense in the country, efficiency speaking, having just lost to the numbers one and three (Auburn and Kentucky, respectively).
I don’t want us to forget the stakes, because they’ll matter for this Vols team. To wit: I don’t think the desperation is whatsoever beneficial to Tennessee’s offensive approach. And if they need to go pound-for-pound with this Florida offense, no matter how slow the pace, I think it favors Florida. Maybe that’s just recency bias, because Tennessee’s backcourt of Zakai Ziegler and Chaz Lanier have, like the rest of the team, been struggling to hit from beyond the arc. In this season’s earlier clash between these two SEC blue-bloods, the Vols shot 4-of-29 from three. And the three is the game by which they thrive and perish, offensively.
Tennessee can win this game if they shrink it, and while that’s possible defensively, I’m wondering if Ziegler’s sore knee and the general trajectory of this team is just too discouraging to ignore. I’ve seen lots of analysis about Tennessee being able to control this game if they stick with Florida on the boards, and I think Florida is far too efficient a rebounding team—and, frankly, far too good a shot-blocking team—for Tennessee to do anything but win this game from beyond the three point line offensively. Defensively, they should manage to keep this game relatively tight. But save for a scoring barrage unlike we’ve seen from this Vols team in the last ten days (or so) of conference play, Florida has the advantage, here.
Betting lean
All to say, I’m backing Clayton Martin and Alijah Martin to be the better holistic back court in this one—offensively and defensively—and I believe that’ll give Florida enough advantage to cover the small spread. Two teams moving in opposite directions, and I don’t think this game brings them any closer in either the SEC standings or momentum.
And, for the record & to the above point, I could really talk myself into taking the Moneyline here for the Gators at the +160 price, and might do so when I lock my wagers. I’ll update my play on my handle @dansby_edits, where you can find quick-hitter plays and more links to longer-form DKN analyses like this one for my NCAAM content.
For now, however, I’m taking the points with Florida, with a strong sense I might jump on the ML tomorrow.
