The final matchup of tonight’s 11-game NBA slate will take place between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Golden State is still searching for its full direction on the season and will have some interesting decisions to make with the trade deadline approaching. The Warriors sit in 11th place in the Western Conference with a 23-23 overall record. Steph Curry continues to perform at a high level but the rest of the roster has not been able to match his level of output. Draymond Green continues to miss time with an ankle injury while Jonathan Kuminga is expected to remain sidelined with a calf issue. Curry missed last night’s game against the Jazz but the expectation is for him to return to the floor tonight.
In contrast, the Oklahoma City Thunder have flourished into the contender they have been building toward. They hold the best record in the NBA at 37-8 on the season, have one of the deepest rosters of the NBA, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the MVP race. Chet Holmgren remains out with a hip issue but he is inching toward a return and the roster otherwise will have all expected players. Lu Dort missed the previous game but is officially off the injury report and set to return tonight and this will be among their healthiest matchups of the season.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging an NBA-best 32.1 points, 6.0 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game. The two-time All-Star is also shooting 35.1% from beyond the three-point arc while attempting a career-high 5.7 perimeter shots per game.
The Thunder enter this game as 9.5-point favorites and -455 on the Moneyline. The Warriors hold +350 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 224 points.
Here are my favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop bets for the Wednesday night matchup.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s props are listed at over/under 32.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 43.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-135)
For most of his career, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has not been viewed as a major threat from the perimeter. The Thunder star is at his best when attacking the basket or operating in the midrange, but he is a complete basketball player who can score from any level. Gilgeous-Alexander has leaned on his perimeter shooting more this season, attempting a career-high 5.7 three-point shots and connecting at a 35.1% rate. For his career, he has taken 3.6 perimeter shots per game and connected on 34.9% of these attempts.
Looking at this season’s production, Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded over 1.5 made three-pointers in 25 of the 44 games he has played in. This includes going 2-for-4 from beyond the arc when the Thunder last played on Sunday.
Looking at the matchup, the Warriors have fallen off from the defensive identity they seemed to be leaning into at the start of this season. Overall, Golden State ranks ninth in opponent points per game, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage, 14th in opponent three-point attempts allowed and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.
These two teams have faced off twice already this season. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 3-for-12 from beyond the three-point arc in the first matchup but then was held to 0-for-2 from the perimeter in the second game. This marks one of only five games this season in which he attempted two or fewer shots from the perimeter. Oklahoma City will have fresh legs after not playing since Sunday, so expect a more focused effort from Gilgeous-Alexander tonight. Count on him to return to his full three-level shot diet and connect on over 1.5 three-pointers for the 26th time already this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 10.5 Assists & Rebounds (-115)
It is easy to be distracted by Gilgeous-Alexander leading the NBA in scoring, but he impacts the game in plenty of other ways. On the season, he is averaging 11.3 combined assists and rebounds. The 26-year-old has recorded over 10.5 assists and rebounds in 26 of the 44 games he has played this season.
Golden State ranks 17th in the league in pace this season and is not afraid to push the tempo, which increases offensive opportunities. It also ranks 21st in opponent rebounds allowed and 16th in opponent assists. Gilgeous-Alexander has played 14 games this season against defenses that rank in the top 10 in scoring and top 20 in pace, and the Warriors fit this description. He has recorded over 10.5 assists and rebounds in nine of these 14 matchups.
Golden State being without Jonathan Kuminga will be a factor as he likely would have been tasked with matching up with Gilgeous-Alexander for at least some of this matchup. Regardless, the MVP favorite is at the heart of everything for this Thunder team, so expect his fingerprints to be all over this game. He recorded 15 combined rebounds and assists in the first matchup between these two teams but was held to just nine in the second. With fresh legs on his side, expect an MVP-caliber performance as Gilgeous-Alexander asserts himself on the boards and as a playmaker. Count on him to record over 10.5 assists and rebounds in this West Coast matchup and for Oklahoma City to continue cruising toward its big-picture goals.
